On The Market New Mortgage Monitor Report: Sellers “Pull Back,” Will Rate Cuts Change That?
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Sep 16, 2025 
Andy Walden, a data expert at ICE Mortgage Technology, dives deep into the current housing market landscape. He discusses the subtle signs of a correction versus a crash, revealing that home prices are up slightly year-over-year but still face challenges. Inventory is cooling as sellers pull back, while issues like rising property insurance are squeezing affordability. Regional insights from Denver, Florida, and Texas showcase local dynamics. Walden predicts if mortgage rates dip to the low sixes, home prices could stabilize.
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Soft Market With Early Signs Of Firming
- ICE data shows nominal home prices up ~1.1% year-over-year, but real prices are negative after inflation.
- The market is soft but showing early firmness as sellers pull back and inventory growth cools.
Sellers Pullback Controls Supply
- Sellers are withholding homes when prices soften, which limits supply and prevents large price declines.
- That voluntary withholding distinguishes a normal correction from a crash driven by forced sales.
Demand Moves With Mortgage Rates
- Demand tracks mortgage interest rates closely, rising when rates ease and falling when rates climb.
- That rate-driven demand response is a sign of a functioning, traditional housing market.