Odd Lots How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War
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Jul 10, 2025 
Andrew Bishop, global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors, dives into the art and science of predicting geopolitical events. He discusses the implications of conflicts like the recent Israel-Iran tensions on markets such as oil and grain. Bishop explains how his rigorous analytical methods help investors navigate volatility and make informed decisions. He also emphasizes the unpredictability of international relations, particularly amid shifting alliances and the nuances of political behavior in a chaotic world.
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Purpose of Geopolitical Analysis
- Geopolitical research is mainly used to prepare clients for possible outcomes, not just for predictions.
- Understanding all potential outcomes helps investors anticipate and react strategically as events unfold.
Using Probabilities in Scenarios
- Analysts assign probabilities to scenario components to ensure logical consistency in overall outlook.
- Combining independent probabilities can reveal cumulative likelihoods surpassing 50%, even if no single outcome dominates.
Analyze Each Prediction Individually
- Avoid relying on grand theories; analyze each prediction individually for better accuracy.
- Watch for shifting motives behind actions, as in varying reasons behind Trump's trade approaches to different countries.