Squaring the Circle AI, Autonomous Weapon Systems, and the Future of Warfare with Dr. Michael C. Horowitz, University of Pennsylvania
Jul 12, 2025
Michael C. Horowitz, Director of Perry World House and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, explores the future of military strategy shaped by AI and autonomous weapons. He discusses the Replicator initiative, emphasizing a shift towards larger, cost-effective arsenals to counter threats like China. The conversation highlights ethical considerations in defense budgeting and the evolving dynamics of warfare. Horowitz argues for the critical balance between human involvement and technology, calling for reforms in software development amid modern conflicts like Russo-Ukrainian.
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Value of Attritable Autonomous Systems
- Attritable autonomous systems are crucial for future military deterrence and conflict success.
- The U.S. military has underinvested in numerous smaller, cheaper autonomous systems compared to expensive platforms.
Changing Nature of Modern Warfare
- Warfare is entering an era of "precise mass" where many inexpensive precise weapons supplement few exquisite ones.
- Operational human responsibility remains key, but tactical human presence is not always feasible or required.
Ukraine's Pioneering Drone Warfare
- Ukrainian forces use one-way attack drones extensively, inflicting 60-70% of Russian front line casualties.
- Operation Spider Web showcased innovative use of AI and open source autopilots to target Russian strategic assets.