Andreas Krieg Doubts Israel Can Ever Really Win the War
Feb 12, 2025
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Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London and director of MENA Analytica, dives deep into the complexities of the Israel-Gaza conflict. He discusses Hamas's resilience and the implications of Hezbollah's enduring strength for Israeli strategies. Krieg critiques the reliance on military force, arguing for a diplomatic approach to achieve lasting peace. The conversation also covers the controversial Hannibal Directive and its moral implications, questioning if true victory in the region is even attainable for Israel.
The podcast highlights that Hamas embodies a broader Palestinian resistance narrative, complicating Israel's military efforts to achieve lasting victory.
Experts argue that Israel's reliance on military operations over political engagement has strengthened Hamas, emphasizing the need for political solutions to the conflict.
Hezbollah represents a strategic challenge to Israel, where operational military gains alone are insufficient without addressing underlying political issues in the region.
Deep dives
Ceasefire Complications and Hostage Dynamics
The situation surrounding the ceasefire agreement in Israel has become increasingly tenuous, with the original terms calling for the return of 25 hostages and the exchange of around 1,900 prisoners. Despite these agreements, the odds seem stacked against a sustainable resolution as Hamas claims the ceasefire has been broken, blaming Israel for the failure to adhere to their commitments. Recent reports of severe conditions endured by released hostages emphasize the gravity of the crisis, and President Trump's ultimatum for the release of remaining hostages intensifies pressure on all parties involved. This precarious state reflects deeper issues embedded within the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, highlighting the urgent need for a political solution.
The Enduring Power of Hamas as a Concept
Hamas is viewed as more than a militant group; it represents a broader idea of resistance among Palestinians that persists despite military strategies aimed at its degradation. Experts argue that Israel's ongoing struggle against Hamas encapsulates not just a fight against armed insurgency but a battle against a deeply entrenched narrative. While Israel has inflicted significant casualties on Hamas fighters, the group's ideological support remains strong, fueled by perceptions of injustice in Palestinian territories. The notion that defeating a just cause through military means is inherently flawed suggests that long-term peace necessitates addressing the underlying grievances rather than solely focusing on military solutions.
The Need for Political Engagement in Counterinsurgency
The podcast emphasizes the critical role of political solutions in addressing the conflict with Hamas, advocating for a shift from pure military tactics to one that builds dialogues with moderate Palestinian factions. Analysts highlight that Israel's strategy has leaned too heavily on military operations while neglecting the essential aspect of engaging the Palestinian Authority and other civil society elements. The assertion is made that the lack of viable alternatives from Israel has only bolstered Hamas's appeal among Palestinians, further entrenching cycles of violence. The discussion calls for a multifaceted approach that includes development and reconstruction efforts alongside the cessation of hostilities to disrupt the narrative supporting Hamas.
The Complexity of the Hezbollah Threat
Hezbollah poses a more formidable challenge to Israel compared to Hamas, given its military capabilities and historical engagement in regional conflicts, notably the Syrian civil war. Analysts indicate that while the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have made operational gains against Hezbollah, they have struggled to achieve strategic outcomes, with the militant group remaining intact and battle-ready. The conversation notes that the IDF's attempts to curtail Hezbollah's influence must include a politically viable solution, as mere military actions fall short of providing long-term security. The podcast suggests that Israel’s inability to foster a stable environment in Lebanon only perpetuates Hezbollah’s narrative and capacity to function as a significant threat.
Iran's Proxy Strategy and Regional Dynamics
Iran's role in the conflict remains influential, as it continues to back various groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah, as part of its broader regional strategy. Despite the challenges Iran faces, including economic sanctions and military setbacks, its network of proxies retains capabilities that can still undermine Israeli security. Analysts argue that Iran benefits from maintaining a level of indirect involvement, utilizing its resources to confront Israel while avoiding direct confrontation within its borders. This layered relationship complicates efforts to delineate clear cut victories in the regional struggle, underscoring the need for comprehensive diplomatic initiatives to stabilize the situation.
In this episode, we speak with Andreas Krieg of King’s College and MENA Analytica about the evolving dynamics in the Israel-Gaza conflict. We break down Hamas’ survival, Hezbollah’s setbacks, and the propagandistic uses Hannibal Directive. With shifting battle lines and long term strategic dilemmas, we ask the fundamental question: Can Israel ever achieve a true victory?
