EP2 Robin Hanson – Decision Making and “The Age of Em”
Jul 8, 2019
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Robin Hanson, an Associate Professor of Economics, discusses the societal impact of brain emulations explored in 'Black Mirror' and 'The Age of Em'. They analyze the intricate design of the human brain and the potential competition between AI and humans. The podcast also covers rates of change, the Fermi Paradox, the great filter, and the surprising aspects of medicine. They delve into the institutional design of politics and highlight the importance of reforming questions and perspectives.
The Great Filter suggests that there are significant obstacles that hinder civilizations from reaching advanced intelligence, and determining whether this filter is in our past or future is crucial for our future prospects.
Remaining vigilant and proactive in addressing potential future obstacles that could impede our progress is crucial, as the Great Filter might lie in our future and jeopardize the long-term survival and advancement of our civilization.
The exploration of the Fermi Paradox highlights the need for careful consideration of potential factors that could hinder our progress, as well as proactive measures to mitigate or overcome them, in order to ensure the future of intelligent life in the universe.
The Great Filter concept emphasizes the fragility and preciousness of civilizations reaching advanced stages, underscoring the importance of seeking solutions to potential obstacles that may impede our progress.
Deep dives
The Great Filter: Explaining the Silence
The Fermi Paradox raises the question of why we haven't detected any signs of intelligent extraterrestrial life in the universe. This paradox can be explained by the concept of the Great Filter. The Great Filter suggests that there is a significant obstacle or series of obstacles that hinder the progression of civilizations along a trajectory towards advanced intelligence. It posits that these filters can be in the form of catastrophic events, evolutionary dead ends, or other factors that prevent civilizations from reaching a stage of visible development. Currently, we only have evidence of dead or non-visible civilizations, which suggests that the Great Filter likely exists. The challenge lies in determining whether this filter is in our past or in our future. If it is in our past, then it is a relief for our future prospects. However, we should still be cautious and take measures to prevent any potential filters in our future.
The Uncertainty of the Great Filter
While it is plausible that the Great Filter lies in our past, we should not be overly confident in this assumption. The filters in our past, whether they are catastrophic events or other hindrances to progress, might not entirely explain the silence in the universe. There is still a possibility that the Great Filter lies in our future, jeopardizing the long-term survival and advancement of our civilization. Therefore, it is crucial for us to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing potential future obstacles that could impede our progress.
Considering the Future of Intelligent Life
The Fermi Paradox raises important questions about the future of intelligent life in the universe. If the Great Filter is in our past, it suggests that civilizations like ours may rarely progress to the advanced stage of development necessary for interstellar visibility. However, if the Great Filter lies in our future, it becomes a pressing issue for our civilization and the potential risks it faces. It highlights the need for careful consideration of potential factors that could hinder our progress, as well as proactive measures to mitigate or overcome them. The exploration of the Fermi Paradox offers valuable insights into the challenges and possibilities that lie ahead for intelligent life in the universe.
The Significance of the Great Filter
The Great Filter concept has profound implications for our understanding of intelligent life in the universe. It suggests that the rarity of visible civilizations may be attributed to significant obstacles preventing their development or visibility. Whether the Great Filter is in our past or future, it underscores the fragility and preciousness of civilizations reaching advanced stages. The exploration of this paradox encourages us to ponder the existence and fate of intelligent life in the cosmos and underscores the importance of seeking solutions to potential obstacles that may impede our progress.
The Importance of Advanced Life
The podcast episode discusses the importance of finding advanced life in the universe. The speaker explains that if advanced life exists outside of Earth, it would provide valuable data about the early steps in the evolution of life. This data would help determine the lower limits of the initial filter in the process of life development. The speaker suggests that if advanced life is found closer to Earth and has an independent origin, it would imply a higher later filter, which could be a cause for concern. The speaker also explores the possibility that life originated in the same molecular cloud as our star and proposes that the other siblings of our star could be the best place to search for life in our galaxy.
The Role of Norms and Hypocrisy in Human Behavior
Drawing from the book 'Elephant in the Brain', the podcast episode delves into the idea that much of human behavior is driven by norms rather than the explicitly stated motives. The speaker suggests that people often attribute motives to their actions as a way to present a positive image to others, rather than accurately representing their true intentions. This tendency to conform to social norms and engage in signaling behaviors creates complex dynamics in various areas, such as education, medicine, politics, and more. The speaker argues that understanding these hidden motives and the role of norms is crucial when trying to bring about meaningful change in these fields.
The Potential of Social Visibility and Enforcement
The podcast episode explores the potential impact of social visibility and enforcement in various areas of society. The speaker suggests that the ability to make behavior more visible could facilitate norm enforcement, creating a system of social pressure and accountability. This visibility, in turn, could help deter and discourage negative behavior, as people would be more inclined to adhere to societal norms if their actions were more easily observed and judged by their peers. The speaker also acknowledges the ongoing debate surrounding the enforcement of norms and the need for a balance between individual privacy and fostering a collective sense of responsibility.
Reforming Systems for Better Outcomes
The podcast episode examines the potential for reforming various systems, such as education, medicine, and criminal justice, to achieve better outcomes. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the true motivations behind human behavior, highlighting the gap between stated intentions and hidden motives. By aligning reforms with these hidden motives and incentivizing behavior that signals conformity and support for desired outcomes, it may be possible to create more effective systems. The speaker also acknowledges the challenges in implementing such reforms, including overcoming resistance to change and the need for a nuanced approach that balances individual freedoms and collective well-being.
Robin Hanson is an Associate Professor of Economics, and received his Ph.D in 1997 in social sciences from Caltech. He joined George Mason's economics faculty in 1999 after completing a two-year post-doc at U.C Berkely. His major fields of interest include health policy, regulation, and formal political theory.
Index to The Jim Rutt Show featuring Robin Hanson
Introduction and "The Age of Em" (00:00:00 - 00:36:00) = 36 minutes
Rates of Change (00:36:00 - 00:39:00) = 3 minutes
The Fermi Paradox (00:39:00 - 00:59:00) = 20 minutes
"The Elephant in the Brain" (00:59:00 - 01:14:00) = 15 minutes
Political Decision Making Section (01:14:00 - 01:26:00) = 12 minutes
Should We Publish Tax Returns? (01:26:00 - 01:37:00) = 11 minutes
Transcript of The Jim Rutt Show featuring Robin Hanson
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