Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - A shorter runway
Jul 18, 2024
auto_awesome
Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS, discusses how investors should position themselves as growth and inflation trend lower, and the upcoming rate cutting cycle. Topics include data alignment with Fed guidance, impact of monetary policy adjustments on total return, and CIO recommendations for strategic fixed income positioning amid market volatility.
Position with higher quality investments to navigate volatility.
Focus on maintaining tactical approach in Treasury markets for potential yield leverage.
Deep dives
Expectations for Growth and Inflation Trends
The podcast discusses expectations for growth and inflation trends in the fixed income market. Leslie Falconio highlights that the market has seen a normalization in the economy with factors like CPI coming in below expectations and job market indicators showing a balance in economic conditions. The discussion focuses on the Fed's stance, anticipating a start of rate cuts in September to support a continued slow economic environment.
Impact of Monetary Policy Adjustments on Fixed Income Performance
The podcast explores the impact of potential rate cuts on fixed income performance. It emphasizes that with the expectation of a soft landing and shallow rate cuts, spreads may experience slight widening, particularly in lower credit quality, offset by carry earnings. Price appreciation is considered secondary in driving total return due to the current yield levels. The recommendation is to focus on higher quality investments to navigate potential short-term volatility.
Recommendations for Fixed Income Positioning
The podcast provides recommendations for fixed income positioning in response to expected trends. It mentions maintaining a tactical approach in the Treasury market within the 4% to 4.5% yield range, anticipating lower long-term interest rates. The strategy involves focusing on higher quality sectors like investment-grade corporates and balancing positions across different maturities to leverage potential yield and curve movements upon Fed rate cuts.
As growth and inflation trend lower, coupled with the next rate cutting cycle on the horizon, we discuss how fixed income investors should position accordingly, along with what to expect across fixed income markets in the months ahead. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode