Call Me Back - with Dan Senor After Venezuela, is Iran Next? - with Karim Sadjadpour
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Jan 5, 2026 
Karim Sadjadpour, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and adjunct professor at Georgetown, delves into the escalating protests in Iran and the implications of U.S. actions in Venezuela. He discusses the diverse makeup of the protesters and the critical role of leadership in revolts, exploring the limitations of exiled figures. Karim also connects Iran's ties with Venezuela, examining the geopolitical shifts and the possible outcomes for the Iranian regime in light of recent events.
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Three Forces That Determine Regime Survival
- Revolutions hinge on three interlinked forces: the leader's health, security forces' cohesion, and protesters' psychology.
- Changes in any of these forces can rapidly alter the regime's survivability.
Why Revolutionary Regimes Last Longer
- Revolutionary dictatorships are often more durable because revolutionary ideology organizes security forces.
- Iran may have low popular support but a highly armed, cohesive minority can sustain the regime.
Social Repression Amplifies Economic Grievances
- Iran's regime is uniquely political, economic, and social authoritarian, making social repression a powerful trigger.
- Social and economic grievances compound because the regime claims moral/religious legitimacy yet squanders resources.
