Realistic Scenarios and Likely Outcomes

Karim outlines plausible paths: temporary suppression, eventual transition after Khamenei, and rise of nationalist or populist leaders.

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Today’s Episode:

For more than a week, hordes of Iranians have taken to the streets and risked their lives to protest the Islamic regime. The regime’s attempts to suppress the protests are failing; instead, the unrest has spread from the capital city of Tehran to other cities and provinces. On Friday, President Trump warned that the U.S. would intervene if the Iranian state kills anti-regime protestors.

Against this backdrop, on Saturday, in a shocking military escalation, U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife while carrying out strikes on the capital city Caracas. Under Maduro, Venezuela has fostered warm ties with the Islamic Regime of Iran as well as Russia and China. Many see Trump’s action in Venezuela as an indication that he is willing to heighten American aggression against its enemies, including the Islamic Republic of Iran.

To discuss what to make of the societal upheaval in Iran – and how the historic events in Venezuela play a role here – Dan was joined by Karim Sadjadpour. Karim is an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a recurring guest on this podcast on all things Iran.

Karim's piece on Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/autumn-ayatollahs

(00:00) Introduction

(05:20) What’s happening on the ground in Iran?

(07:41) The conditions needed for regime collapse

(15:26) The character of Iranian protestors

(18:40) How did Israel’s attacks in June affect this moment?

(22:47) Understanding the regime’s strategy to stay in power

(25:03) How does the Venezuela operation impact the situation in Iran?

(30:39) The fragility of the Islamic regime

CREDITS:

ILAN BENATAR - Producer & Editor

ADAAM JAMES LEVIN-AREDDY - Executive Producer