On The Market HousingWire’s 2025 Housing Market Predictions: Rates, Prices, and More
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Dec 2, 2024 Mike Simonsen, an analyst at Altos Research, dives into compelling predictions for the housing market in 2025. He discusses the potential for mortgage rates to dip below six percent and a hopeful increase in home sales. With a surprising 27% rise in unsold single-family homes, Mike explores how this could trend and its impact on prices. He sheds light on the one crucial metric his team is monitoring closely. Overall, there’s an optimistic outlook for buyers and sellers navigating the shifting landscape.
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2024 Housing Market Surprises
- Mortgage rates stayed higher than many experts predicted throughout 2024.
- This resulted in lower home sales and higher inventory, yet home prices didn't decline as anticipated.
Housing Inventory Trends
- Current US single-family home inventory is 722,000, up 27% year-over-year.
- Inventory growth is concentrated in the South, while the North has restricted inventory due to paused migration.
The "Great Stay"
- Pandemic-driven migration is temporarily on hold, impacting regional housing markets.
- Simonsen calls this the "great stay," observing similar trends in labor markets with low hiring and quitting rates.