On The Market

HousingWire’s 2025 Housing Market Predictions: Rates, Prices, and More

Dec 2, 2024

Mike Simonsen, an analyst at Altos Research, dives into compelling predictions for the housing market in 2025. He discusses the potential for mortgage rates to dip below six percent and a hopeful increase in home sales. With a surprising 27% rise in unsold single-family homes, Mike explores how this could trend and its impact on prices. He sheds light on the one crucial metric his team is monitoring closely. Overall, there’s an optimistic outlook for buyers and sellers navigating the shifting landscape.

35:16

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Mike Simonsen

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Quick takeaways

The 2024 housing market saw unexpected elevated mortgage rates, leading to stagnation in home sales despite an increase in housing inventory.

Experts predict a modest 5% growth in home sales for 2025, depending on the stabilization of mortgage rates and new listings.

Deep dives

Surprises in the 2024 Housing Market

The 2024 housing market concluded with several unexpected developments, particularly regarding mortgage rates, which remained higher than anticipated throughout the year. Many experts initially predicted mortgage rates would decrease to around five percent, but they consistently hovered in the six to seven percent range. This persistent elevation in rates contributed to a stagnation in home sales, continuing a trend of declining sales that has persisted for nearly three years. Despite a higher supply of homes on the market, home prices did not fall significantly, maintaining an annual appreciation of around four percent, surprising market analysts who expected otherwise.

Intro

3min

Trends in Housing Inventory

5min

Analyzing the Impact of Interest Rates on Migration and Housing Inventory

5min

Navigating the Housing Market Landscape

11min

Future Projections for the Housing Market: Navigating 2025 Challenges

3min

Housing Market Predictions for 2025

7min

It’s the season for housing market predictions, and we know who to call! Altos Research and HousingWire’s Mike Simonsen joins the show to share where his team thinks mortgage rates, home prices, housing inventory, and buyer demand will be in 2025. Every year, the HousingWire team puts together a phenomenal housing market forecast, touching on the topics investors, agents, lenders, and housing nerds care about while recapping the wildest surprises of the year prior.

Will mortgage rates finally fall below six percent in 2025? Will home prices dip with housing inventory up a substantial percentage year-over-year? And could agents and lenders finally get some relief with home sales, or will we still see sluggish purchasing and buyer activity? Not to spoil it, but Mike is optimistic about the 2025 housing market and what will come over the next twelve months.

Mike breaks down each prediction and what could affect YOU the most, whether you’re buying or selling homes. Plus, he shares the one metric his team is watching carefully to see which direction the 2025 housing market is headed.

In This Episode We Cover

HousingWire’s 2025 housing market forecast and 2024 housing market recap

The mortgage rate range you can expect over the next twelve months

Home price growth and exactly how much the HousingWire team expects in 2025

Why housing inventory is starting to climb again (and whether it will continue in 2025)

One metric Mike and his team are paying very close attention to in 2025

The market’s reaction to the 2024 election and President-Elect Trump’s win

And So Much More!

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