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Forward Guidance
The Next Chapter in Emerging Markets Investing | Marshall Stocker, Co-Head of Emerging Markets, Morgan Stanley
Aug 24, 2023
17:18
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Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, discusses the importance of country selection in generating excess returns, highlights investment opportunities in Greece, examines the risks in South Africa and India, debates the possibility of a US debt downgrade, and shares insights on China's equity market and potential economic stimulus.
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Quick takeaways
- Country selection has a greater impact on excess returns than company selection in emerging markets investing.
- Investing in countries undergoing institutional transformation or undervalued by the market can offer excess returns in fixed income or equities.
Deep dives
Key Point 1: Investing in emerging markets relies heavily on country selection
According to 50 years of data, approximately 80% of excess returns in emerging markets investing are determined by which country is chosen, rather than specific companies or sectors. This means that country-level analysis is more crucial than individual stock selection. For example, Russian equities collectively experienced significant losses, demonstrating that even skilled stock selectors would have suffered if they had ignored the country-level analysis. Similarly, in the case of China, getting the country allocation correct is deemed more important than selecting specific stocks.
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