NAB Morning Call Is that it for the RBA? US missing October.
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Nov 13, 2025 Ken Crompton, a NAB Markets Research economist, analyzes Australia’s labor and inflation landscape while discussing the RBA's expected pause on easing. He shares insights on the uncertain US economic data and how this impacts Fed policies. The conversation shifts to global perspectives, with a look at stagnant UK growth and New Zealand's declining migration. Ken also prepares listeners for China’s upcoming data dump, emphasizing anticipated weaknesses in retail and housing sectors.
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RBA Easing Cycle Is Over
- NAB now expects the RBA to stop easing and hold rates at 3.6% through early–mid 2027.
- Ken Crompton cites sticky inflation, stronger growth and housing/lending data as the main reasons.
Employment Gain Was Strong But Fragile
- The October labour report showed a 42,000 rise in employment, reversing about half of September's uptick in unemployment.
- Ken Crompton warns sample rotation may have exaggerated the strength but the labour market is only slowly weakening.
Inflation To Stay Above Target
- Persistent services inflation and capacity constraints suggest inflation will stay around 3% for at least a year.
- NAB sees minimal risk of inflation undershooting so policy is unlikely to be eased soon.