Israel Minister of Strategic Affairs discusses Israel's goal to cripple Hamas. Oil surges after Hamas' attack. Concerns over terrorist activity outside the Middle East. Iran's enabling of proxies. Long-standing relationship between Iran and Hamas. Challenges in taking over Gaza. Biden administration's approach to the conflict.
Israel's intelligence failure allowed Hamas to carry out the attack, highlighting the need for improved surveillance.
The challenging environment in Gaza presents difficulties for Israeli ground invasion and rescue operations, leading to high casualties.
Deep dives
Hamas' Intelligence Success in Evading Israeli Surveillance
Hamas was able to develop a compartmented planning, execution, and training program that evaded Israeli surveillance, leading to the attack. This is considered an intelligence failure by Israel and a failure by the international community in protecting their nationals.
Challenges of a Ground Invasion or Hostage Rescue operation
Taking action in the crowded and tall buildings of Gaza presents an extremely difficult challenge for Israel in planning a ground invasion or hostage rescue operation. The casualty count is likely to be high for both Israelis and Palestinians.
Regional Dynamics and Multi-Polar Power
While there are ongoing drivers for regional integration and diplomatic relations with Israel, the fractured international community makes it difficult to promote a peace plan. Iran's role in enabling proxies and providing support without direct involvement allows them to escape international punishment.
Complications of Hostages and its Impact on Diplomacy
The presence of international hostages, including Americans, dispersed within Gaza complicates identification and rescue planning. This will introduce complications to both military operations and diplomatic efforts, potentially requiring assistance from multiple actors including Iran.
Ron Dermer, Israel Minister of Strategic Affairs, says Israel has a clear goal to cripple the capabilities of Hamas. Ellen Wald, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow & Author of "Saudi Inc.", discusses oil surging after Hamas' attack on Israel. Steve Chiavarone, Federated Hermes Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, says if you start to see any terrorist activity in non-Middle Eastern countries, that is something that could shake confidence in the world. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser for the Transnational Threats Project, says Iran was unlikely to have played a "robust, active role in planning attacks" on Israel but they do enable proxies Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance