More or Less Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?
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Jan 14, 2026 
In this discussion, Tom Coles, a reporter investigating private school closures, dives into whether 105 schools really shut due to VAT policies. Professor Sir John Curtice debunks claims of a church attendance revival, revealing a significant decline instead. Nathan Gower challenges the government’s assertion that 10.8 million families rely on X (Twitter) for news, uncovering misleading data. Together, they unpack numerical claims in the news, revealing surprising truths and clarifying public misunderstandings.
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Closure Count Misleads On Cause
- The raw count of 104 private school closures since Labour introduced VAT is misleading without context.
- Tom Coles shows openings, school types, sizes, and prior trends mean closures can't be blamed solely on VAT.
Special Schools Distort The Numbers
- Many closed institutions were special schools funded by local authorities and exempt from VAT.
- Meanwhile many special independent schools have been opening, so sector capacity changes are complex.
Demographics And Small Size Matter
- Most closed mainstream independent schools were small, often under 150 capacity and half full.
- Demographic decline in primary-age children and pre-existing financial fragility explain closures beyond VAT.