Serhiy Kudelia, "Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia's War on Ukraine" (Oxford UP, 2015)
Apr 16, 2025
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In this discussion, Serhiy Kudelia, an Associate Professor of Political Science at Baylor University and author of a key study on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, shares insights from his extensive research. He unpacks the conditions that allowed separatist sentiments to flourish in Donbass while examining the roles of local actors versus Russian intervention. Kudelia discusses the complexities of regional identities, contrasting local perspectives during pivotal events like the Euromaidan revolution, and the challenges of executing the Minsk Agreements amid geopolitical tensions.
The podcast emphasizes the significance of local narratives in understanding the Donbass conflict, highlighting how individual town experiences shaped the outbreak of violence.
It explores the evolving dynamic of local identity in Donbass, where perceptions of Russian support shifted from initial enthusiasm to skepticism amidst the conflict's progression.
Deep dives
Unique Focus on Local Dynamics in Donbass
The discussion highlights the unique approach taken in examining the conflict in Donbass by concentrating on micro-level dynamics in individual towns rather than broad macro-level variables. This analysis explores how local experiences and reactions shaped the outbreak of armed conflict as the author visited approximately 20 government-controlled towns and interacted with residents, journalists, and local officials. By documenting personal accounts, the author reconstructs timelines and captures the varied mechanisms through which different towns were seized and governed during the early stages of the conflict. This methodology aims to provide a nuanced understanding of local narratives that often diverge from overarching national narratives.
Impact of the Euromaidan Revolution
The Euromaidan Revolution is presented as a critical precursor that significantly influenced the perceptions and identities of individuals in Donbass, contrasting sharply with the sentiments in other regions of Ukraine. Following the Euromaidan, the author explains that many residents interpreted this revolution as a Western-led coup, which created a sense of fear among local populations regarding potential nationalist aggression. This specific lens framed the local identity dynamics, where the entrenched regional identity of Donbass often conflicted with the emerging Ukrainian national identity. As a pivotal catalyst, the revolution set the stage for subsequent mobilizations and counter-mobilizations, marking a significant turning point in the region.
Complex Interplay of Local and Russian Influences
The podcast underscores the complex relationship between local actors in Donbass and the Russian government's influence during the early stages of the conflict. It emphasizes that while Russian intervention was a significant factor, local leaders and activists also played vital roles in shaping the separatist narrative and mobilizing support. The notion of 'external push' is introduced, suggesting that local activists were motivated by a mix of genuine grievances, regional pride, and the perception of being supported by Russia, which provided ideological and organizational backing. As local identities evolved, some individuals initially favorable to Russian involvement became skeptical, indicating that perceptions were not static but transformed through the conflict.
Recognition of the Ukrainian State's Role
Amidst the chaos of the separatist takeover, the evolving dynamics revealed how essential the Ukrainian state remained to the daily lives and operations of individuals in Donbass. Initially, local officials downplayed the role of the state, considering themselves capable of self-sufficiency due to the region's industrial resources. However, as the conflict progressed and Ukrainian financial support waned, the reality of dependency on Ukrainian state services for essential public amenities became starkly apparent. This realization prompted a reconsideration among locals regarding their stance on separatist governance, diminishing the initial enthusiasm for a break from Ukrainian control and highlighting the intertwined fates of local authorities and the central government.
How do separatist conflicts arise and spread? When does separatism become a cover for a foreign aggression? How do local communities respond when state institutions collapse, and militants take over? The armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine, which started eight years before Russia's full-scale invasion, contains unique evidence to address each of these questions.
In Seize the City, Undo the State: The Inception of Russia's War on Ukraine(Oxford UP, 2015), Serhiy Kudelia offers an authoritative study of the conflict at its initial stage--2013-14--based on a meticulous comparison of mobilization dynamics in over dozen towns of Donbas as well as in two major cities outside of it: Kharkiv and Odesa. Through his extensive travels and numerous interviews with conflict witnesses and participants, Kudelia explains how a small group of Russian agents and local militants succeeded in eliminating state control over the largest and most densely urbanized region of Ukraine but failed to do it elsewhere. Kudelia challenges the conventional accounts of the armed conflict in Donbas, which portray it either as an interstate conflict entirely manufactured by Moscow or as a civil war that broke out without any external influence. Instead, he argues that local actors prepared ideological and organizational basis for the uprising, but the successful spread of separatist control resulted from the covert intervention of Russian agents and widespread collaboration with them of town administrators and community activists. His findings also show that when enough members of local communities organized to resist militant takeovers, the separatist challenges there quickly dissipated.
A fine-grained and highly original on-the-ground analysis of the origins of the wider Russian-Ukrainian war that broke out in 2022, this book offers broader insights into the conditions under which external intervention may trigger the rise of an armed insurgency in a society torn apart by political and ideological disagreements.
