The Four Big Structural Forces Holding Back China's Economy
Aug 21, 2023
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Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of 'Sovereign Funds', discusses the current struggles of the Chinese economy. She highlights the 'four Ds'—demand, debt, demographics, and decoupling—as major hindrances to recovery. Liu analyzes the government's economic policies, the impact of demographic shifts on real estate, and the role of sovereign wealth funds in navigating these challenges. The conversation offers a deep look at how China’s financial strategies are shaped by both internal and external pressures.
The four D's (demand, demographics, debt, and decoupling) are acting as persistent drags on China's economy, impacting housing demand, household income growth, and trade tensions.
China's sovereign wealth funds, like the China Investment Corporation, have evolved to support foreign policy initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, but may need to address systemic risks and protect China's interests in the face of geopolitical shifts and potential sanctions.
Deep dives
China's Weak Economic Data
Recent economic data from China has shown signs of weakness, including an emergency rate cut and a decline in retail sales and manufacturing. This is in contrast to earlier expectations that China's reopening would drive global growth.
The Four D's
The economic challenges facing China can be characterized by the four D's: demand, demographics, debt, and decoupling. Demand for housing in China is declining due to lower population growth and fewer family formations. Household income growth has also slowed down. Debt levels, particularly in the housing market, have become a concern. Additionally, the decoupling of the Chinese economy from global supply chains and trade tensions pose challenges for China's economic growth.
Political Economy and Household Stimulus
The Chinese Communist Party's control over the economy plays a role in its reluctance to provide direct stimulus to households. Incentivizing household spending and empowering the private sector would dilute the party's control over capital allocation. The decline in household consumption and the reluctance to adopt stimulus measures can be attributed to declining household income growth, deteriorating household balance sheets due to control on real estate policies, and lack of confidence in the current economic environment.
China's Sovereign Funds and Global Ambitions
China's sovereign wealth funds, such as the China Investment Corporation (CIC), play a significant role in financing China's global ambitions. Originally created to address economic crises, these funds have evolved to strategically support foreign policy initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. However, the global geopolitical landscape and increasing risk of sanctions may lead to a shift in China's use of these funds to address systemic risk and protect its interests.
The Chinese economy is in a slump. Industrial production is down. Retail sales are down. The property industry continues to struggle. The People's Bank of China just did a surprise rate cut. So what's driving the decline and what can the government do about it? On this episode of the podcast we speak with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of the new book Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. She explains how the "four Ds" — demand, debt, demographics and decoupling — are acting as a persistent drag on the Chinese economy right now. We discuss possible policy responses and how China's war chest of financial assets plays into the government's strategy.