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Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

The Macroeconomic Malaise | Juliette Declercq on Debt, Tariffs, Immigration, and Yield Curve

Dec 4, 2024
Juliette Declercq, the founder of JDI Research, is a macroeconomic whiz who shares her insights on the shifting landscape of the U.S. economy. She argues that recession looms larger than inflation for the coming years. Declercq emphasizes the role of debt and immigration in economic growth, and expresses optimism about the dollar's strength and bond market trends. The discussion also touches on the impact of tariffs and the challenges faced by labor dynamics and productivity, providing a compelling view of market predictions and investment strategies for the future.
01:13:57

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Juliette Declercq posits that the looming threat of recession may outpace inflation risks for the U.S. economy by 2025 due to debt reliance.
  • The influx of immigration plays a critical role in addressing labor shortages, yet simultaneously contributes to wage stagnation and economic inequality among lower-income workers.

Deep dives

Macroeconomic Malaise and Its Implications

The entrenched macroeconomic malaise refers to the disconnect between financial markets and the real economy. Despite the U.S. stock market reaching all-time highs and inflation falling slightly, there is a prevailing lack of organic growth due to a stagnating working-age population. This malaise manifests in political unrest, as seen with the rise of Trumpism, which is attributed to an underlying dissatisfaction with capitalism's inability to deliver consistent growth and social mobility. The decline in organic growth, compounded by demographic changes in Western economies, is contributing to significant political and economic changes across the globe.

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