The Macroeconomic Malaise | Juliette Declercq on Debt, Tariffs, Immigration, and Yield Curve
Dec 4, 2024
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Juliette Declercq, the founder of JDI Research, is a macroeconomic whiz who shares her insights on the shifting landscape of the U.S. economy. She argues that recession looms larger than inflation for the coming years. Declercq emphasizes the role of debt and immigration in economic growth, and expresses optimism about the dollar's strength and bond market trends. The discussion also touches on the impact of tariffs and the challenges faced by labor dynamics and productivity, providing a compelling view of market predictions and investment strategies for the future.
Juliette Declercq posits that the looming threat of recession may outpace inflation risks for the U.S. economy by 2025 due to debt reliance.
The influx of immigration plays a critical role in addressing labor shortages, yet simultaneously contributes to wage stagnation and economic inequality among lower-income workers.
The historical increase in debt-to-GDP ratios highlights the long-term economic instability resulting from borrowing without organic growth, raising concerns about political dissatisfaction.
Deep dives
Macroeconomic Malaise and Its Implications
The entrenched macroeconomic malaise refers to the disconnect between financial markets and the real economy. Despite the U.S. stock market reaching all-time highs and inflation falling slightly, there is a prevailing lack of organic growth due to a stagnating working-age population. This malaise manifests in political unrest, as seen with the rise of Trumpism, which is attributed to an underlying dissatisfaction with capitalism's inability to deliver consistent growth and social mobility. The decline in organic growth, compounded by demographic changes in Western economies, is contributing to significant political and economic changes across the globe.
Immigration as a Double-Edged Sword
Immigration has emerged as a quick fix for labor shortages, particularly in the U.S., where recent growth in the workforce is largely attributed to immigration. While this influx can support government revenues and profits, it often leads to wage stagnation and increased precarity among lower-income workers. The rising number of undocumented workers impacts real wage growth, shifting wealth away from the average worker towards profits for the elite class. This phenomenon exacerbates economic inequality and highlights the complex balance between labor market needs and the well-being of the working class.
Rising Concerns of Recession Over Inflation
Currently, there is a notable shift in focus from inflation risks to the potential for recession, particularly as inflation rates stabilize. Past inflation concerns have been subdued, but the outlook for economic stability is less certain due to changes in the labor market and potential job losses. The argument centers around whether the economy can sustain growth without a corresponding increase in real wages, especially in a scenario where purchasing power declines. This economic environment could set the stage for an emerging recession as fiscal policies adjust to a less favorable employment landscape.
Debt Dynamics and Political Ramifications
The continued increase in debt-to-GDP ratios amidst stagnant organic growth poses long-term challenges for Western economies. Policies aimed at borrowing for growth may result in only short-term gains, leading to inflation and an unmanageable debt level. The historical context compares the current situation with past economic cycles, underscoring that without organic growth, excessive borrowing will ultimately result in political instability and public dissatisfaction. Rising interest rates and the fragility of market confidence add to challenges in managing fiscal deficits and ensuring social benefits.
Global Disconnect and the U.S. Dollar
The strength of the U.S. dollar is viewed as a product of American exceptionalism, where the U.S. continues to dominate in services despite significant trade deficits in goods. Tariffs are seen as a tool to balance fiscal deficits while potentially stimulating domestic production, despite concerns over their long-term economic implications. The impact of the current political landscape, particularly the policies introduced by Trump, reflects an interplay between domestic conditions and the global economic climate. Overall, the dynamics of currency strength, fiscal policy, and international trade relations highlight the complexities of navigating a rapidly changing economic environment.
A stalwart of the “no recession” camp for many years, Juliette Declercq of JDI Research joins Jack to argue why she thinks that recession is now the greater risk than inflation for 2025 and beyond. Declercq argues that U.S. economy has been growing beyond organic levels by relying upon debt growth and immigration. She explains her bullish view on the dollar, the two-year note, and her views on stocks and bonds. Recorded on December 2, 2024.