Monetary Matters with Jack Farley The Macroeconomic Malaise | Juliette Declercq on Debt, Tariffs, Immigration, and Yield Curve
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Dec 4, 2024 Juliette Declercq, the founder of JDI Research, is a macroeconomic whiz who shares her insights on the shifting landscape of the U.S. economy. She argues that recession looms larger than inflation for the coming years. Declercq emphasizes the role of debt and immigration in economic growth, and expresses optimism about the dollar's strength and bond market trends. The discussion also touches on the impact of tariffs and the challenges faced by labor dynamics and productivity, providing a compelling view of market predictions and investment strategies for the future.
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Capitalism's Malaise
- Juliette Declercq believes "Trumpism" reflects a deep malaise in capitalism.
- This malaise stems from declining organic growth in Western economies.
Sources of Demand Growth
- Demand growth comes from working population growth, productivity/real wages, and debt.
- Immigration boosts the labor force and government revenue, but suppresses wage growth.
Shifting Concerns
- Juliette Declercq, once an "inflationist," now worries more about recession than inflation.
- She sees tariffs as a one-off supply shock absorbed by profits, not sustained inflation.