Russian Roulette
An Update on the Russian Economy with Elina Ribakova and Sergey Aleksashenko
Jul 27, 2023
Elina Ribakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute focusing on the Russian economy, and Sergey Aleksashenko, a former Deputy Minister of Finance, share their insights on Russia's economic landscape. They discuss the impact of sanctions, revealing military production as a growth driver while non-military sectors struggle. The conversation also explores inflation issues, the ruble's devaluation, and the potential shift towards a Soviet-style economy. Additionally, they analyze the roles of China and other countries in Russia's trade dynamics.
50:28
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Quick takeaways
- The Russian economy is experiencing short-term stabilization driven primarily by military production, raising concerns about long-term sustainability amidst labor loss and emigration.
- Despite the pressure of sanctions on Russia, the lack of effective enforcement and adaptive responses from the economy complicate their potential long-term impact.
Deep dives
Current State of the Russian Economy
The Russian economy is showing signs of short-term stabilization as of July 2023, with recent indicators suggesting improvement in budget revenues, particularly in non-oil and gas sectors. Economic growth has been reported, albeit solely driven by military production, leading to concerns about the sustainability of such growth in the long term. Significant challenges persist, including loss of labor due to military drafts and mass emigration. Consequently, while short-term recovery may be evident, the medium-term outlook remains bleak due to factors such as reduced productivity and lack of investment in productive industries.
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