Market forecast update: what to expect in 2026

The Private Bank’s Chief Investment Office just held its quarterly “CIO Day” gathering to set its 12-month forecasts, and it included some interesting shifts to its outlook, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The key takeaway is that the worst of the trade war is behind us as we enter 2026,” Deepak says, adding that recent market volatility has not changed its views on AI: “We still believe the AI dominance will continue and have a very positive tailwind from the earnings side for 2026. So we upgraded our S&P target.”

Central banks were naturally part of the discussion, and Deepak pointed to sharp divisions at the Federal Reserve over the course of monetary policy in the coming months. “We now expect three rate cuts from now till the year end of 2026,” Deepak said, while the European Central Bank is not expected to cut at all, and the Bank of Japan is forecast to raise rates twice.

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