Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Recession? Guess The Economy Didn’t Get The Memo (Ep. 48)

Aug 23, 2023

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese discuss the strong economic data and retail sales, the impact of investment spending on productivity, the contrasting views between Leading Economic Indicators and consumer opinions, the relationship between bonds and the stock market’s performance, the importance of teaching children about investing and financial literacy, and the market's expectation of the Fed raising interest rate expectations despite doubts on the declaration.

37:01

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Quick takeaways

Earnings estimates have increased, indicating improved company performance and increased investment spending.

Credit markets show confidence in companies' ability to meet debt obligations, suggesting a less likely chance of a significant market downturn.

Deep dives

Earnings estimates are rising

Earnings estimates for the next 12 months have increased by almost 2% in the last six weeks, indicating expectations of improved company performance. Capital expenditure estimates are also on the rise, pointing to increased investment spending by businesses.

Introduction

3min

No Recession in Sight: Analyzing the Strong Economy and Increased Spending

3min

Economic Strength, Labor Market, and Auto Production

4min

Investment Spending and Productivity

12min

Teaching Children about Money and Interest

12min

The Federal Reserve's Approach to Interest Rates and Inflation: Expectations and Doubts

3min

Do you feel like we’re in a recession? Well, the facts show us otherwise.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese talk about the current state of the economy, focusing on the importance of hard data in understanding economic trends. They discuss the strong economic data and retail sales, highlighting the significant increase in retail sales over the past three months. Ryan and Sonu also touch on how investment spending benefits productivity, the contrasting views between Leading Economic Indicators and consumer opinions, and the relationship between bonds and the stock market’s performance.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

Recent strong economic data in retail sales and auto production and why the economy is stronger than we thought
The positive impact strong industrial production has had on the economy
Why auto production has been soaring even more than it was pre-pandemic
The impact investment spending has on productivity
The contrasting views between the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and other economic indicators, such as PMIs and consumer sentiment
The relationship between bond yields and stock market performance
The importance of teaching children about investing and financial literacy
And more!

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