Weekend Edition: How could Trump change the Fed?

Friday 31st May 2024

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Assuming he stays out of prison, Donald Trump has an even chance of winning the next Presidency. What does that mean for the Fed? Trump has often argued for the need to keep interest rates low, so he’s probably not too happy with the higher for longer strategy being used to fight inflation right now. We also know he wants to challenge the independence of the central bank. But how would that work exactly?

On this Weekend Edition Mary Rosenbaum, Managing Director of the Observatory Group, an analyst firm in Washington specialising in geopolitics and macroeconomics, gives her take on what President Trump 2.0 could do to achieve his low-interest aims. Will he try and replace people in the Fed, or change the Federal Reserve Act so the government has more control over how the Fed operates, with Treasury members on the board perhaps. Or will Trump resort to bullying the Fed to see things his way?

Mary talks through the various scenarios and what the implications could be on bonds, interest rates and the dollar. Some useful insights that’s worth half an hour of your weekend.

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