The Commentary Magazine Podcast A Not-Good Election for the GOP
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Dec 3, 2025 Jesse Arm, External Affairs Director at the Manhattan Institute, dives into the surprising Tennessee special election results and what they mean for the GOP's future. He reveals insights from his extensive survey of Republican voters, which identifies a divide between core conservatives and newer, progressive entrants. The conversation covers the shifting Republican identity under Trump and the long-term loyalty of these newer voters. They also discuss the tension between achievement-driven and grievance-oriented conservatism shaping the party's path forward.
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Weak Democrat Still Overperformed
- Afton Bain, a far-left Democrat, overperformed by about 13 points relative to Kamala Harris, indicating strong Democratic engagement even with a weak nominee.
- Turnout matched 2022 midterm levels, signaling voter engagement in special elections.
Special Elections Signal Trouble
- Special elections in 2025 show consistent Democratic overperformance versus 2024 presidential results.
- This reflects low Republican turnout and public dissatisfaction with the party in power.
Run On Affordability
- Republicans should emphasize an affordability message to counter public dissatisfaction and turnout shifts.
- Candidates must distance from the administration where necessary if affordability policies aren't credible locally.