Michael Howell: MASSIVE LIQUIDITY CRISIS closer than you think. Which ASSETS will PROTECT you?

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May 2, 2025

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital and author of Capital Wars, analyzes the global liquidity crisis looming between 2025 and 2028. He emphasizes that liquidity—not interest rates—drives markets and warns of a $70 trillion debt refinancing challenge. Howell discusses the U.S.-China financial conflict and the growing debt risks that could trigger a systemic crisis. He also highlights gold and Bitcoin as potential safe havens, exploring their roles in navigating this complex financial landscape.

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INSIGHT

Liquidity Drives Market Cycles

Global liquidity, not interest rates, is the true driver of modern markets and economic cycles.
Debt refinancing and balance sheet capacity dictate liquidity flow, superseding traditional monetary aggregates like M1 or M2.

INSIGHT

Crises Stem From Refinancing Tensions

Crises happen when debt levels outpace liquidity, causing refinancing stresses that trigger collapses.
Historical crises share this pattern of excessive debt and liquidity mismatch, leading to sharp market downturns.

INSIGHT

Repo Market Links Liquidity and Collateral

The repo market is central, linking liquidity to collateral, and is crucial for debt refinancing.
Collateral scarcity and market volatility signal breakdowns in debt rollovers, heightening crisis risks.

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Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital and author of Capital Wars, breaks down why global liquidity—not interest rates—drives markets, and warns of a looming $70 trillion debt refinancing wall that could trigger a systemic financial crisis between 2025–2028. We dive into the real cause behind every market crash, the growing collateral shortage, and the capital war between the U.S. and China, including how gold and Bitcoin could emerge as the ultimate winners.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro 02:19 - Contrarian views 03:31 - What Is Liquidity? The Misunderstood Driver 06:10 - The $350 Trillion Debt Problem 07:32 - How Liquidity Shortages Trigger Crises 09:11 - Every Crisis Is a Refinancing Crisis 12:06 - The 2025–2028 Debt Refinancing Wall 13:03 - The Fed’s Balance Sheet and Policy Blind Spots 17:28 - Repo Market Stress Signals Trouble 20:29 - The New Financial System Is Pro-Cyclical 22:06 - Bond Market Volatility: A Dangerous Signal 24:12 - The Fed Is Running Out of Liquidity Tools 27:49 - Has the Treasury Lost Control of the Bond Market? 34:12 - China’s Liquidity Strategy and Yuan Devaluation 37:13 - Why Gold Is Rising in Yuan Terms 39:26 - Projecting a $2,600 Gold Price 41:14 - The West Will Need to Devalue Paper Money 42:29 - What Assets to Own in a Liquidity-Driven World 44:03 - Bitcoin’s Correlation to Liquidity Explained 46:06 - Why M2 Doesn’t Matter Anymore 48:46 - Risk Assets vs. Debt Crisis: What Wins? 51:58 - The U.S.–China Capital War 54:01 - The Battle for Global Collateral 57:24 - Could the U.S. Revalue Its Gold Reserves? 01:01:20 - Blow-Off Top or Bear Market? Michael’s Take 01:03:00 - Risk Appetite Is Crashing 01:04:40 - Global Economic Activity Is Slowing Fast 01:06:02 - Gold & Bitcoin as Crisis Beneficiaries 01:07:42 - Can Bitcoin Really Be a Hedge? 01:08:04 - Gold: A More Direct Liquidity Play 01:08:23 - Closing Thoughts & Where to Find Michael