Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital and author of Capital Wars, breaks down why global liquidity—not interest rates—drives markets, and warns of a looming $70 trillion debt refinancing wall that could trigger a systemic financial crisis between 2025–2028. We dive into the real cause behind every market crash, the growing collateral shortage, and the capital war between the U.S. and China, including how gold and Bitcoin could emerge as the ultimate winners.
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The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:19 - Contrarian views
03:31 - What Is Liquidity? The Misunderstood Driver
06:10 - The $350 Trillion Debt Problem
07:32 - How Liquidity Shortages Trigger Crises
09:11 - Every Crisis Is a Refinancing Crisis
12:06 - The 2025–2028 Debt Refinancing Wall
13:03 - The Fed’s Balance Sheet and Policy Blind Spots
17:28 - Repo Market Stress Signals Trouble
20:29 - The New Financial System Is Pro-Cyclical
22:06 - Bond Market Volatility: A Dangerous Signal
24:12 - The Fed Is Running Out of Liquidity Tools
27:49 - Has the Treasury Lost Control of the Bond Market?
34:12 - China’s Liquidity Strategy and Yuan Devaluation
37:13 - Why Gold Is Rising in Yuan Terms
39:26 - Projecting a $2,600 Gold Price
41:14 - The West Will Need to Devalue Paper Money
42:29 - What Assets to Own in a Liquidity-Driven World
44:03 - Bitcoin’s Correlation to Liquidity Explained
46:06 - Why M2 Doesn’t Matter Anymore
48:46 - Risk Assets vs. Debt Crisis: What Wins?
51:58 - The U.S.–China Capital War
54:01 - The Battle for Global Collateral
57:24 - Could the U.S. Revalue Its Gold Reserves?
01:01:20 - Blow-Off Top or Bear Market? Michael’s Take
01:03:00 - Risk Appetite Is Crashing
01:04:40 - Global Economic Activity Is Slowing Fast
01:06:02 - Gold & Bitcoin as Crisis Beneficiaries
01:07:42 - Can Bitcoin Really Be a Hedge?
01:08:04 - Gold: A More Direct Liquidity Play
01:08:23 - Closing Thoughts & Where to Find Michael
