Meet the pollster who is getting under the Democrats’ skin
Jan 26, 2024
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Former top pollster and strategist for Bill and Hillary Clinton, Mark Penn, discusses his controversial polls and the potential for a third-party candidate. They also explore the support for Joe Biden and the doubts surrounding his candidacy. The episode dives into Trump's strengths and weaknesses in the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, the rise of immigration as a top issue, and Biden's negotiation strategy. Overall, a fascinating conversation on the current political landscape.
The podcast episode discusses the potential impact of third-party candidates in the upcoming 2024 election and suggests that a viable third-party candidate could divide the anti-Trump vote, potentially giving Trump a path to victory.
The podcast episode highlights the significance of immigration as a top-tier issue in the current political landscape and emphasizes the need for President Biden to address immigration in a way that neutralizes the issue and addresses the concerns of voters.
Deep dives
The Rise of Third-Party Fever in the 2024 Election
The podcast episode discusses the growing popularity and potential impact of third-party candidates in the upcoming 2024 election. The episode highlights the importance of third-party candidates as a potential threat to Joe Biden's re-election and suggests that a viable third-party candidate could divide the anti-Trump vote, potentially giving Trump a path to victory. The episode mentions several individuals who are running or involved in third-party movements, such as Cornell West, RFK Jr., Jill Stein, and the No Labels movement. The episode also explores polling data showing that a significant percentage of voters are open to considering a moderate independent candidate as an alternative to both Biden and Trump. The episode further touches on the controversy surrounding No Labels and its connection to Democratic strategist Mark Penn, who provides polling data for the movement. The episode concludes by highlighting the current dynamics of the Republican and Democratic races, including the strong hold that Trump has on the Republican base and the consolidation of support for Biden within the Democratic Party.
The Implications of Immigration as the Top Issue
The podcast episode delves into the significance of immigration as a top-tier issue in the current political landscape. It highlights how immigration has emerged as the number one issue according to recent polls, surpassing the economy. The episode discusses the potential implications of this shift, particularly for President Biden's administration. It suggests that Biden needs to address immigration in a way that neutralizes the issue, as it has become a major concern for a significant portion of the American population. The episode emphasizes the need for Biden to find a strategy that acknowledges the seriousness of the issue and addresses the concerns and expectations of voters. It also mentions the potential challenges posed by the left-wing segment of the Democratic Party, which advocates for more open borders and comprehensive immigration reform.
Analyzing Trump's Campaign Strategy and Indictment Risk
The podcast episode analyzes the differences between Trump's 2016 and 2020 campaigns and discusses his current campaign strategy for a potential 2024 presidential run. It highlights the improvements in Trump's campaign, noting a more professional approach and better organization. The episode also explores the risks associated with the ongoing legal cases and potential indictments faced by Trump. It discusses polling data that shows how different scenarios, such as criminal convictions in different cases, could impact voter preferences. The episode suggests that a conviction in the case related to the January 6th Capitol riot would significantly harm Trump's chances of winning, while other cases might have a lesser impact. It emphasizes the high stakes nature of these legal challenges and their potential to deeply affect the outcome of future elections.
Assessing Biden's General Election Strategy and Weaknesses
The podcast episode evaluates President Biden's general election strategy and focuses on his weaknesses as a candidate. It criticizes Biden's handling of the summer period, suggesting that he missed opportunities to present a fresh face and address key issues during that time. However, the episode acknowledges that Biden's strategy of making the campaign about a choice between him and Trump is a viable approach. It explains that Biden's solid support from Democrats helps him, despite concerns about his age and lower job ratings. The episode also highlights challenges faced by Biden with regards to finding the right format and setting for him to connect with voters and overcome the age issue. Overall, the episode emphasizes the importance of Biden neutralizing immigration as a top issue and maintaining the support of his party as he vies for re-election.
Mark Penn is best known for two things: his devotion to centrist politics and his former role as the top pollster and strategist for Bill and Hillary Clinton. Lately, he’s added a third: a barrage of polls that show a large majority of Americans are crying out for an alternative to Trump and Biden.
On this episode of Deep Dive, he talks with host and Playbook co-author Ryan Lizza about his relationship (or lack thereof) with No Labels – a group promoting a third-party candidacy – the recent GOP primary results, his controversial polls, and why he thinks that Nikki Haley may still have a big role to play in this year’s election.
Ryan Lizza is a Playbook co-author for POLITICO. Mark Penn is the CEO of Stagwell and former Clinton strategist. Kara Tabor is a producer for POLITICO audio. Alex Keeney is a senior producer for POLITICO audio.