Rational Security: The “F*cked by Five” Edition

Oct 8, 2025

Guest

Tyler McBrien

Guest

Loren Voss

Guest

Daniel Byman

This week, Daniel Byman, a foreign policy and national security expert, Loren Voss, a public service fellow with a focus on military legality, and Tyler McBrien, managing editor at Lawfare, dive into pressing national security issues. They discuss legal implications of deploying federal troops in U.S. cities, evaluate a potential peace deal for Gaza, and analyze U.S. actions towards Venezuela. The conversation unveils the complexities of domestic military use, international diplomacy, and the geopolitical landscape, all peppered with sharp insights and analysis.

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INSIGHT

Deployments Driven By Unclear Facts

The Portland and Chicago deployments mirror the California model but on shakier factual grounds and smaller force sizes.
Lack of clear predicate facts and mixed legal authorities make these domestic troop uses novel and legally fraught.

INSIGHT

Courts Must Sift Facts From Rhetoric

Courts face a difficult fact-fighting role because public rhetoric diverges from the Justice Department's narrower legal claims.
Judges may reject the low-deference standard the administration expects when the factual record is weak.

INSIGHT

Shifting Terrorism Landscape And 'Antifa' Label

Terrorism trends have shifted: right-wing attacks fell while left-wing attacks ticked up recently, though totals remain low.
'Antifa' functions as a rhetorical label, not a formal organization, complicating legal and policy responses.

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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Managing Editor Tyler McBrien, Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman, and Public Service Fellow Loren Voss to talk through (somehow only three of) the week’s big national security news stories, including:

“The Dream of the ‘90s is Alive in Portland.” This past week, the Trump administration made good on its threats to pursue further domestic military deployments, this time to Portland and Chicago. Thus far, the administration has stuck to the same model it pursued in Los Angeles, using troops to bolster federal immigration enforcement efforts. But President Trump has threatened to go further if his efforts are resisted, including by invoking the Insurrection Act—something that hasn’t happened since 1992. How seriously should we take this threat? And where is it likely to lead?
“Strip Poker.” President Trump and his senior advisers have been engaged in serious shuttle diplomacy for the past several weeks, seeming intent on reaching some sort of peace deal in the beleaguered Gaza Strip. And while it’s required him to play every card in his hand—including by bullying both Israel and Hamas into signing on—President Trump appears to be on the verge of a breakthrough. How remarkable an accomplishment is this? And what will it mean for the trajectory of the conflict?
“The Maduro Doctrine.” Media reports suggest that several senior Trump administration officials are intent on removing Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro from power, and that the build-up of U.S. military forces in the region—as well as the lethal targeting of alleged Venezuela-affiliated narcotics traffickers in recent weeks—is just a prelude to a bigger effort at regime change. How likely is it that the Trump administration will take such a step? And what could it mean for the region?

In object lessons, everyone’s taking a break—sort of. Dan’s “break” involves playing The British Way, a strategy game designed by his colleague Stephen Rangazas that even non–political scientists will enjoy. Tyler’s actually taking a break and heading back to high school with English Teacher on FX. Scott’s taking a break from originality by recycling not one but two object lessons: a reminder to catch Katie Pruitt at Union Stage on 10/14 (seriously, go), and—if you’re not in D.C.—Alan’s once-in-a-blue-moon good advice to watch Slow Horses on Apple TV+. And Loren is taking a break from her vices and cleaning up her act with dirty soda.

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