Putin and Starmer: Will the Russia-UK relationship ever be repaired?
Aug 28, 2024
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This discussion features Andrew Monaghan, a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI specializing in UK-Russia relations. The conversation delves into the tumultuous history of UK-Russia ties and whether a return to diplomatic civility is possible. Monaghan explores the evolving energy geopolitics and how the UK’s approach must change amid a reduced dependence on Russian gas. He also highlights the internal cultural rifts within Russia and the younger generation's outlook, while examining the broader implications of the Ukraine conflict on Western responses.
The UK-Russia relationship has deteriorated since the Ukraine invasion, marking a shift from 1990s civility to current hostilities.
The UK's limited reliance on Russian energy resources positions it strategically in the European geopolitical landscape amidst a push for energy alternatives.
Deep dives
The Current State of UK-Russia Relations
The relationship between the UK and Russia has significantly deteriorated since the invasion of Ukraine, with Britain's stance positioning it as one of Ukraine's foremost allies. London was previously not a central point for Moscow's strategic discussions, but its active support for Ukraine has made it a target of Russian discontent. The UK is viewed unfavorably by the current Russian leadership, marking a complete turnaround from the relative warmth of the 1990s. This hostility reflects broader disagreements within the Euro-Atlantic community regarding their approach to Russia and military aggression.
Historical Context of UK-Russia Tensions
The UK-Russia relationship began to sour significantly in the early 2000s, highlighted by events such as the murder of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006, which marked a notable break in political ties. A series of foreign policy disagreements, including over the wars in Chechnya and Iraq, compounded the tension, leading to an ultimately hostile environment. By the mid-2010s, multiple crises including the Crimea annexation and the Skripal poisoning incident further alienated the two nations. This trajectory points not only to deteriorating diplomatic relations but also to a growing moral divide and strategic hostility between London and Moscow.
Geopolitical Implications of Energy Dependency
The UK's historically limited dependence on Russian energy resources positions it uniquely in the evolving geopolitical landscape, especially amidst rising concerns over energy security. The current conflict in Ukraine has forced Europe to reevaluate its energy reliance, pushing for alternatives and accelerating energy transition initiatives. The UK, while not as reliant on Russian gas as some of its European neighbors, finds itself in a crucial position as part of a broader European strategy to move away from Russian commodities. This shift is fostering a competitive environment, framing Moscow as an energy competitor against an increasingly net-zero oriented Euro-Atlantic community.
Long-Term Strategic Contest with Russia
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is framed by Russia as part of a larger geopolitical struggle that is likely to extend into the 2030s, presenting the war not merely as a regional dispute but as a global power competition. This perspective indicates that any future negotiations should be seen in a broader context of a long-standing strategic contest where the Russian leadership perceives itself as engaging with a hostile Western bloc. The UK must recognize that its engagement with Russia will require a sustained and resilient approach to its national security interests, particularly given the fluid dynamics of international relations. As a result, a clear understanding of both London’s goals and potential Russian trajectories is imperative for formulating effective foreign policy.
The UK and Russia have long had a strained relationship – and ties have only been worsened since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Is there any future possibility for a return to a 1990s state of civility between the two nations – or has Putin’s reign marked a permanent end to such a connection? In the third episode of our ‘Foreign Affairs’ mini-series on Britain’s foreign relationships, Rafael Behr speaks to RUSI Senior Associate Fellow Andrew Monaghan to better understand tensions between the UK and Russia.
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Written and presented by Rafael Behr. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Art by James Parrett. Music by Kenny Dickinson. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production