Behind the Markets Podcast The Value Trades for 2026
Jan 2, 2026
In this discussion, Sam Rines, a macro strategist focusing on geopolitics and energy, and Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy known for his insights on market behavior, tackle pressing issues shaping the economy. They highlight geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, assess the Fed’s stance on policy amid evolving job markets, and forecast global equity trends. The duo delves into the rising competition in AI between the U.S. and China, and the potential impact of upcoming IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI on market dynamics.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Strong Start With Three January Risks
- The U.S. entered 2026 with solid momentum in hiring, holiday spending, and GDP forecasts signaling strength.
- Key near-term risks include a possible government shutdown, the Supreme Court tariff ruling, and the Fed chair selection.
Fed Chair Choice Matters For Yields
- Fed leadership choice could push long-term yields modestly higher if chosen chair is more rate-friendly to the President.
- Jeremy Siegel warned a Kevin Hassett appointment could add ~5–15 basis points to long bond yields.
Use Fed Cuts As Low-Cost Insurance
- Expect the Fed to consider further cuts but weigh that against long-end bond dynamics and productivity gains.
- Treat 25–50 bps cuts as a low-cost insurance option to stabilize the labor market and markets.