Chun Han Wong, China reporter for the Wall Street Journal, joins Jude Blanchette to discuss his book on Xi Jinping's rise and China's superpower future. They explore reporting challenges, China's decision-making hurdles, consequences of Xi's power centralization, and the implications of his incapacitation. The podcast highlights the significance of China's political system and succession procedures as a global power.
Xi Jinping changed the succession system in China to centralize power in his own hands, eliminating potential rivals and sidelining influential figures.
Speculating on Xi Jinping's succession plan is challenging due to numerous factors and uncertainties at play such as his vision, potential successors, and internal dynamics within the top Chinese leadership.
Deep dives
Succession challenges in autocratic political systems
Succession in autocratic political systems is a complex and difficult process. Autocratic leaders prefer successors who can protect their legacy and personal safety, but the successor also needs to build their own power base. In China, the succession process seemed relatively stable during Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao's leadership, thanks to power sharing dynamics and decisions made by Deng Xiaoping. However, Xi Jinping changed the succession system to centralize power in his own hands, eliminating potential rivals and sidelining influential figures. As a result, the successor's dilemma resurfaced, with Xi Jinping having the final say in choosing his eventual successor.
Xi Jinping's approach to succession
Xi Jinping's primary goal was to consolidate and centralize power in China. By eliminating rivals and centralizing decision-making, he inadvertently changed how succession works in the country. While he hasn't explicitly stated his succession plan, it is likely that he wants to choose his successor before his own incapacitation or death. The specific timing and details of his succession plan are uncertain, as they depend on various factors such as the achievement of his vision, potential successors' performance, and assessments of his grip on power.
Potential challenges in the event of Xi Jinping's incapacitation or death
In the event of Xi Jinping's incapacitation or death, the succession process in China could be unpredictable and highly influenced by individuals in key positions who control information flows. The lack of clear procedures and succession guidelines could lead to power struggles among top leaders, mirroring the dynamics depicted in the movie 'The Death of Stalin.' Factors such as control of security forces, information, and interpersonal relationships would play significant roles in shaping the outcomes. Ultimately, the specific scenarios are highly speculative, given the limited information about internal dynamics and power struggles within the Chinese leadership.
Uncertainties in Xi Jinping's succession plan
Speculating on Xi Jinping's succession plan is challenging due to numerous factors and uncertainties at play. While he may have a vague idea or plan, it is difficult to determine his exact intentions. Various considerations such as achieving his vision, evaluating potential successors, and assessing his own performance could influence when and how he handles power transition. The internal dynamics and information flow within the top Chinese leadership further complicate predicting specific scenarios.
In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette is joined by Chun Han Wong, a China reporter for the Wall Street Journal, to discuss his new book Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China’s Superpower Future.
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