HousingWire Daily Will better jobs data send mortgage rates higher in 2026?
Dec 10, 2025
Logan Mohtashami, a keen lead analyst in housing and mortgage markets, joins the conversation to dissect the intricate relationship between labor data and mortgage rates. He addresses the impact of potential job improvements on rates as well as the significance of Fed Day and Jerome Powell’s remarks. Logan also evaluates the odds of labor market fluctuations and predicts mortgage rate trends leading into 2026, while exploring how trade dynamics could further shape the economic landscape.
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Labor Drives Mortgage Rate Outcomes
- Labor-market strength is the main determinant of mortgage-rate direction for 2026.
- If labor tightens, mortgage rates will likely rise even with a new Fed chair, Logan Mohtashami said.
2018–19 Trade War Memory
- Logan recalls 2018–19 where trade-war uncertainty softened labor before unexpectedly strong early‑2020 job prints.
- That history informs his view that weak data can reverse quickly if policy or trade clarity arrives.
Small Job Gains Can Shift Markets
- Jobs data are running off a very low bar, so small improvements can look large.
- Mohtashami notes hires and quits are down, meaning modest changes can swing market sentiment.