Renewables, Natural Gas and Nukes with Adam Rozencwajg
Nov 1, 2023
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Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner of Natural Resource investor Goehring and Rozencwajg, discusses the challenges and costs of renewable energy projects, natural gas supply and LNG demand, the impact of prices and technology on oil and gas production, and investing in private energy companies and predicting future energy trends.
The renewable energy sector is facing challenges from increasing material costs and rising interest rates, potentially causing real problems in the industry.
There is a shifting sentiment towards nuclear power as a key solution in the energy transition, with advancements in molten salt reactors and potential rise in uranium prices.
Deep dives
Renewables face challenges from rising material costs and interest rates
The podcast discusses how the renewable energy sector is facing challenges from increasing material costs and rising interest rates. The episode highlights that the cost savings in renewables over the last decade have largely come from cheaper material costs and lower capital costs. However, with the normalization of these costs, there is a potential for real problems in the industry. The podcast mentions specific examples such as the doubling of the cost of average green hydrogen facilities and major overhauls of power purchase agreements for wind projects. These developments indicate a shift in the dynamics of the renewable energy sector.
The potential impact of higher interest rates on energy projects
The podcast explores the potential impact of higher interest rates on various energy projects. It explains that renewable energy projects, with their upfront capital costs, tend to be more sensitive to interest rate movements compared to traditional energy projects. The episode discusses how higher interest rates can increase the carrying costs of renewable projects and affect their economics. It also mentions the impact of higher interest rates on speculative projects like hydrogen. The podcast suggests that higher interest rates could impair project economics and deflate the growthier energy transition story, leading to potential declines in equity values of renewable companies.
The changing dynamics of the natural gas market
The podcast delves into the changing dynamics of the natural gas market. It highlights the anticipation of a significant rise in liquefaction from the US and its potential global implications. The episode discusses the challenges in meeting the natural gas demand for liquefaction plants and the shift in supply pathways due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It emphasizes the potential for a drastic increase in natural gas prices if excess export capacity is opened up, as the US has been producing more gas than it can export. The podcast also mentions the risk of the US implementing restrictions on gas exports to favor the domestic market.
Nuclear power gaining acceptance as a key solution
The podcast observes a shift in public sentiment regarding nuclear power as a key solution in the energy transition. It discusses the potential of nuclear power to address carbon and efficiency challenges better than renewables. The episode mentions the involvement of Bill Gates' TerraPower and their use of molten salt as a cooling medium, highlighting its advantages over water in terms of safety and efficiency. The podcast also touches upon the volatility and potential rise in uranium prices, along with advancements in small modular reactor (SMR) technology. While various SMR designs are being developed, the podcast suggests that adopting proven technologies with fundamental differences, such as TerraPower's molten salt reactors, holds promise for the future of nuclear power.
In 2023, Renewables have struggled with rising costs and higher interest rates. Alongside, there is a growing palpable shift in the perceptions, and expectations of nuclear power’s role in the energy transition. Is this a structural shift? Natural gas remains the bridge fuel but can shale production keep up with growing US exports and if not, what will that mean? in this episode, Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner of Natural Resource investor Goehring and Rozencwajg rejoins us to discuss the structural shifts and shifting sentiments in energy in 2023 and what 2024 may hold in store.