Macro Mondays

All Eyes on Rate Cuts?

37 snips
Dec 8, 2025
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INSIGHT

Soft Fed Could Power Risk Asset Opportunities

  • A soft Fed in 2026 paired with rate cuts should create multiple opportunities across risk assets.
  • Liquidity shifting from the Fed to private channels may alter broad asset allocation next year.
INSIGHT

Weaker Jobs Could Enable Fed Cuts

  • Recent ADP figures dipped but may be within a new lower breakeven job-creation range near 30k per month.
  • Weaker payroll prints could provide the Fed political cover to cut rates despite inflation above target.
INSIGHT

AI Shows Early Labor Market Impact

  • AI appears to be reducing hiring in information and professional services, showing sector-specific labor disruption.
  • These displacement effects make jobless reports more complex as macro signals and policy problems simultaneously.
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