Emerging Markets and Global Shocks: Why Credit Outcomes Are Uneven

Emerging markets have weathered a string of global shocks since 2019 with more resilience than in past cycles, supported by stronger policy frameworks, deeper local markets and larger buffers.

 

We discuss why credit outcomes are increasingly uneven across EMs, how a more fragmented global economy is reshaping trade and financing, and why investors are focusing on country-by-country differentiation.

 

Looking ahead, we explore what could test that resilience next, including high interest rates, debt-affordability pressures and the policy choices that will separate stronger credits from weaker ones.

 

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk, Moody's Ratings

 

Guests: Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Associate Managing Director, Sovereign Risk, Moody's Ratings

 

Related Research:

 

• Financial policy is key differentiator of credit quality amid global shocks, 07 May 2026
• Low-rated sovereigns' credit quality is recovering but is weaker than a decade ago, 06 May 2026
• Early policy reform and strong buffers support resilience to global shocks, 05 May 2026 
• Middle East Conflict – India: Energy shock fuels external, inflationary and sectoral risks, 20 April 2026
• Corporates – Indonesia: Policy uncertainty will constrain credit strength as regulatory intervention rises, 16 April 2026
• Sovereigns – Global: Middle East shock will test sovereigns with limited credit buffers, 7 April 2026
• Sub-Saharan African Macro Monitor: Financing needs will remain broadly stable in 2026,  31 March 2026

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