Episode #132: Zach Abuza, a columnist at Radio Free Asia and a professor at the National War College in Washington, DC, provides his analysis of the tactical and strategic situation facing the Tatmadaw nearly two years into their attempted coup.
He debunks several theories regarding the Burmese military. One is the size of the Burmese military, which he believes is much smaller than is often assumed, and is now showing signs of strain. There is also an increasing number of defections, and Abuza estimates that around 15% of the Tatmadaw’s soldiers have been killed, wounded, or defected.
In the past, the military relied on an urban Bamar population who could at worst be counted on to tacitly support their incursions into ethnic territories. Now, however, Abuza says, “The people are not being cowed into submission…it's got to drive Min Aung Hlaing and Soe Win absolutely batshit that the population continues to resist the military every day!” People with almost nothing still manage to give whatever they can to the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), a clear sign of how determined they are to continue to sacrifice in hopes of seeing the military defeated once and for all.
In terms of the military’s resources, on the one hand, Abuza notes that helicopters are the biggest threat to the resistance efforts, and their munitions are produced in-country. However, Abuza has seen a decrease in the number of mortars being launched into villages, indicating that they are concerned about their depleting stocks.
With all this in mind, Abuza feels it is critical for the PDFs to begin avoiding direct conflict in favor of “fighting the military's ability to wage war. They have to concentrate on the increasingly depleted logistics network.” His main concern is the resistance’s ability to sustain their efforts, since the Tatmadaw still benefits from relationships with China and Russia.