The escalating violence in South Sudan is fueled by President Kiir's dismissal of key political figures, leading to distrust and ethnic tensions.
The ongoing conflict in neighboring Sudan has exacerbated South Sudan's instability, complicating its political landscape and raising regional security concerns.
Deep dives
South Sudan's Escalating Violence
The recent outbreak of violence in South Sudan has raised concerns about the stability of the nation, particularly in regions like Upper Nile and Juba. Following an attack by the White Army militia linked to the first vice president, Reik Machar, the situation escalated quickly, leading to clashes between various factions. Reports indicate that President Salva Kiir's government has been targeting opposition bases and their leaders, resulting in a broader pattern of violence that includes clashes among different ethnic groups. This decentralization of conflict has created a tense atmosphere, with fears that the ongoing unrest could devolve into ethnic violence reminiscent of past civil wars.
Implications of Political Restructuring
President Salva Kiir's strategic moves to restructure the political landscape in South Sudan have raised eyebrows, particularly his targeting of opposition figures and loyalists. These changes, which include the dismissal of key military and party leaders, have sparked anger and distrust within the government and among the population. Kiir's actions appear to be attempts to consolidate power amidst threats stemming from outside pressures, such as the recent war in Sudan, which has severely impacted oil revenue, crucial for funding his regime. As the situation grows more precarious, the underlying motives behind these political changes are scrutinized, particularly regarding succession planning amid Kiir's declining health.
The Fragile Economic Landscape
The economic landscape in South Sudan has drastically deteriorated, largely due to disruptions in oil supply resulting from the conflict in Sudan. With significant oil pipelines running through war-torn areas, the loss of revenue has hindered the government's ability to maintain its military and pay employees, exacerbating existing tensions. Kiir's reliance on oil exports for revenue has left the government vulnerable and unable to stabilize the economy amidst mounting unrest. If the economic situation continues unchecked, it could lead to widespread instability and further civil conflict as economic grievances feed into the larger political crisis.
Regional and International Dynamics
The ongoing conflict in Sudan has complicated South Sudan's political landscape, with potential implications for stability in the region. Kiir's efforts to maintain neutrality and engage with both the Sudanese army and the RSF have left him in a precarious position, balancing relationships amid a shifting geopolitical environment. Concerns are growing about the possibility of South Sudan becoming a proxy battleground, with armed groups potentially receiving support from neighboring factions. The need for intervention from regional leaders or international bodies has become increasingly urgent, yet the absence of clear direction or a cohesive strategy raises doubts about the feasibility of peace and stability in the region.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the escalating violence in South Sudan. They examine what’s behind clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile state before spreading to other parts of the country. They look at President Salva Kiir’s recent government shakeup, including the dismissal of both former Kiir allies and key opposition figures and rivals, most notably First Vice President Riek Machar, a co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also talk about how the war in neighbouring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan and Juba’s uneasy balancing act with Sudan’s warring factions, both of which control territory along a vital oil pipeline. Finally, they discuss the muted response from outside South Sudan, what a renewed conflict could mean for regional stability and the legacy of the country’s fragile 2018 deal.
