Episode 94: New ‘Great Power’ Competition in the Middle East
Feb 12, 2025
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Burcu Ozcelik, a Senior Research Fellow specializing in Middle East Security, and Michael Stephens, a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, discuss the shifting alliances and emerging power struggles reshaping the Middle East. They delve into the implications of the recent Gaza conflict, questioning Western influence and the potential for a unified Arab response. The conversation highlights changing global dynamics, the complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the evolving roles of major powers like the U.S., Iran, and China.
The ongoing conflicts in Gaza are reshaping regional alliances, highlighting the critical importance of Palestinian statehood in Middle Eastern politics.
As Western influence wanes, Arab states may pursue independent strategies and alliances with rising powers like China and Russia.
Deep dives
Emergence of a New Regional Order
The Middle East is witnessing the possible emergence of a new regional order influenced by the aftermath of conflicts such as the war in Gaza. Attention is being directed towards how the region is transforming due to these events, with international powers like the US, UK, China, and Russia playing pivotal roles alongside rising regional powers such as Israel, Turkey, and Iran. The ongoing instability has led to competing visions regarding future governance and territorial disputes, particularly concerning Palestinian statehood and the treatment of Gaza. The situation is compounded by varied responses from international actors that shape geopolitical dynamics and pose challenges to established international rules.
Regional Reaction to US Plans for Gaza
In response to President Trump's proposed reconstruction plan for Gaza, there's been significant backlash from Middle Eastern states that perceive it as politically and ethically unacceptable. Egypt and Jordan, directly impacted by the proposal, voiced their strong opposition citing national sentiments toward Palestinian rights, fearing internal unrest should they appear to support the plan. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia emphasized that any normalization efforts would hinge on a viable pathway toward Palestinian statehood. The intense regional disapproval underscores how critical the Palestinian cause remains within Middle Eastern identity politics.
The Complexity of Alternative Solutions
The lack of a coherent alternative to Trump's plan reveals the complex dynamics at play in the Middle East regarding Palestinian governance. Regional states are revisiting the long-discussed two-state solution, yet there appears to be no consensus on who would oversee this transition or how effective it would be. Additionally, proposals like a reformed Palestinian Authority have surfaced, but uncertainty surrounds its capacity to deliver essential governance and services to Gaza's devastated population. Thus, the Arab world finds itself in a gray area where it must develop a unified stance and proactive steps toward achieving Palestinian rights amid ongoing geopolitical turbulence.
Evolving Influence of Global Powers
The role of the UK and European states in shaping the future of the Middle East is increasingly being scrutinized, suggesting a possible decline in their influence relative to the US and emerging powers like China. Many analysts argue that the West's traditional approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict lacks tangible outcomes and fails to resonate effectively with regional actors. The evolving landscape indicates that Arab states, recognizing the waning of Western dominance, may seek more autonomous paths or alliances, particularly with nations like China and Russia. Additionally, this shifting power balance presents the UK with both a challenge and an opportunity to redefine its role and maintain its historical ties in a more multipolar context.
Shifting alliances and global power struggles are redefining the Middle East's future. Neil Melvin, Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens explore who will ultimately hold the power.
This episode dives into the evolving power dynamics of the Middle East in the wake of war and regional instability. As global and regional players – from the US and China to Iran, Israel and Russia – compete for influence, host Neil Melvin and his guests, Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens, ask whether Western power is in decline, how regional powers can shape their own future, and what’s next for Gaza.
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