Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China correspondent for the Financial Times, and Oriana Skylar Mastro, a Stanford expert on the Chinese military, delve into the implications of Xi Jinping's recent military purges. They discuss whether these actions signify a struggle against corruption or preparations for conflict, particularly regarding Taiwan. Additionally, they explore the effectiveness of Xi's military reforms since 2015, comparing China's readiness with Japan's historical military performance, while assessing the overarching geopolitical tensions.
Xi Jinping's ongoing purges within the PLA highlight his struggle with military corruption and concerns over loyalty among top officials.
The reshuffling of military leadership raises questions about the PLA's operational readiness, especially amid rising tensions regarding Taiwan.
Deep dives
Xi Jinping's Military Purge
Xi Jinping has been intensifying his anti-corruption campaign within the People's Liberation Army (PLA), leading to the suspension of several high-ranking officials, including Defense Minister Dong Jun and Miao Hua, who served on the Central Military Commission. The investigation is seen as a reflection of Xi's ongoing struggle to maintain control over potentially corrupt elements in the military. This pattern raises questions about Xi's confidence in the loyalty and competence of his officers, suggesting that concerns about trust may drive the purge as much as concerns about corruption. The sacking of high-level generals, including those seen as loyal allies, poses risks to the PLA's operational readiness, particularly amid increasing tensions over Taiwan.
Implications for Military Strategy
The purges and investigations within the PLA indicate a potential shift in focus towards the Navy, as Xi Jinping moves to enhance the capabilities of this branch in light of significant budgetary allocations for shipbuilding. The history of the PLA shows systemic corruption, particularly within the ranks of the military, leading to speculations about the overall competence of its leadership. Experts warn that Xi's pervasive mistrust may hinder effective decision-making as military leaders might fear making truthful assessments of capabilities amidst ongoing scrutiny. Ultimately, these leadership reshuffles could shape not only military strategy but also influence Xi's willingness to engage in a conflict over Taiwan.
Military Readiness Concerns
Experts are divided regarding the implications of Xi Jinping's anti-corruption efforts on the readiness of the Chinese military, especially when it comes to Taiwan. While some view the purges as a necessary step towards strengthening military governance, others suggest that it may breed instability and hinder operational effectiveness. Historical comparisons raise doubts about the preparedness of the Chinese military, with arguments highlighting the duality of strong capabilities against a backdrop of systemic issues. Reports of substandard military equipment and logistical challenges further contribute to uncertainties surrounding the PLA's ability to execute complex operations successfully.
Future Projections on Taiwan
Xi Jinping's military reforms aim to have the PLA ready for significant operations by 2027, particularly concerning the situation in Taiwan. This timeframe aligns with broader military modernization efforts that have been in planning for decades, rather than being solely attributed to Xi's leadership. However, there is skepticism surrounding whether these reforms will enable the PLA to engage effectively without facing substantial resistance from U.S. forces. Ultimately, analysts suggest that the ongoing purges and concerns about military readiness may delay any aggressive maneuvers concerning Taiwan, thus contributing to a more cautious approach in the near future.
More than a year after Xi Jinping purged two senior generals in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force unit, China’s investigation into its military seems to be ongoing, with more scalps taken. In recent weeks, Miao Hua, another senior general who had been a member of the Central Military Commission, has been suspended; while reports abound that the country’s current defence minister, Dong Jun, is under investigation too. If suspended, Dong would be the third consecutive defence minister that Xi has removed. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one defence minister may be regarded a misfortune; to lose three looks like carelessness.
So what is happening at the top of the PLA? Is all of this movement a sign of Xi failing to get on top of corruption within the military or, in fact, a sign that he is gearing up for serious military action, perhaps over Taiwan? Just how effective have the military reforms that Xi instigated in 2015 been?
Joining the podcast today are Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on the Chinese military at Stanford University and author of Upstart: How China Became a Great Power, and Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China correspondent for the Financial Times.
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