The Secrets of Statecraft The State of Israel with Dan Senor | Secrets of Statecraft | Andrew Roberts | Hoover Institution
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May 21, 2024 
Dan Senor, host of the “Call Me Back” podcast, discusses the war in Gaza, Biden's potential arms embargo on Israel, the challenges of the two-state solution, and the interplay of anti-Israel sentiments in political movements. The podcast also explores historical perspectives on Jewish contributions in German society and reflects on Yitzhak Rabin's assassination and its impact on the peace process.
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Hamas Is Organized Like An Army
- Hamas functions like a disciplined light-infantry army with about 24 battalions and real hierarchy.
- Israel has crushed ~20 battalions but four remain concentrated in Rafah requiring a ground operation.
Arms Embargo Hurts Multi‑Front Readiness
- Israel currently has what it needs to operate in Rafah without the withheld 2,000-pound bombs.
- But multi-front escalation (Hezbollah, Iran) would increase Israel's need for U.S. munitions.
Signals Matter More Than Munitions
- The political signal of withholding arms pressures Israel to rush Rafah and weakens incentives for Hamas to negotiate.
- It also undermines regional partners' faith in U.S. reliability, harming Saudi cooperation.