Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

Rupert Mitchell: Are We Extrapolating Wrong Again? | A Macro Veteran on Chinese EVs, AI Hype, and Why Things Are Never as Good or Bad as They Seem

Nov 10, 2025
Rupert Mitchell, a capital markets veteran with three decades of experience, discusses the importance of learning adaptability over narrow vocational skills. He shares his cautionary tale from the Barings collapse, emphasizing that market perceptions often swing between extremes. Rupert explores how narrative drives market behavior and championed Chinese electric vehicles' impact on the auto industry. He also highlights the transformative effects of AI on research workflows while warning against potential capital misallocations in the hype surrounding AI advancements.
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ADVICE

Learn How To Learn

  • Learn how to learn instead of training for one narrow skillset.
  • Embrace being a generalist so you can adapt to new markets, products, and themes quickly.
ANECDOTE

Barings Collapse And A £400 Briefcase

  • Rupert spent his first £400 bonus on a briefcase hours before Barings collapsed.
  • The collapse taught him that things are never as bad as you fear or as good as you hope.
INSIGHT

Extrapolation Bias In Markets

  • Humans love to extrapolate, and those extrapolations are usually wrong.
  • Pitch expectations away from extremes because markets swing between 'so over' and 'we're so back'.
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