Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Maurice R. Greenberg fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses China's de-dollarization efforts, the rise of a new energy and commodity system, China's desire to protect itself from being cut off from the dollar system, China's dominance in critical minerals processing and manufacturing capacity, the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on China's currency strategy, and an overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and the rise of Chinese companies in the high tech sector.
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Quick takeaways
China is actively working to create an alternative currency system to reduce reliance on the US dollar.
China's declining population poses short-term challenges for its economy, particularly in the housing market, while long-term implications require strategies to address labor dynamics and economic evolution.
Deep dives
China's Efforts to Reduce Exposure to the Dollar
China is making efforts to reduce its exposure to the dollar-based system due to economic and geopolitical reasons. Chinese financiers aim to create an alternative system by splitting settlement and payment, increasing liquidity, and establishing a new trading system denominated in the renminbi (RMB). The goal is to diversify currency options and reduce reliance on the dollar. While the transaction volume on the Chinese interbank payment system is still relatively low, it serves as a proof of concept for China's initiative. However, the risk lies in a potential currency war and the challenge of export if the global trading system splits into two parts.
China's Belt and Road Initiative and Diversifying Currency Options
China's Belt and Road Initiative initially aimed to address the country's overcapacity problem and increase the use of the RMB in international transactions. The Silk Road Fund was created to facilitate the RMB's internationalization and broaden its use along the Belt and Road countries. However, while lending under the Belt and Road Initiative remains dollarized, China sees the initiative as an opportunity to create new markets for commodities and promote an alternative currency system. The aim is to undollarize these markets and increase the pricing power of the RMB in critical minerals and commodities such as rare earth metals.
The Implications of a Shrinking Chinese Population and Building a Diversified Economy
China's declining population poses short and long-term challenges for its economy. In the short run, a shrinking population affects the housing market and the demand for housing, which constitutes a significant portion of China's GDP. Without a housing market recovery, it becomes difficult for the Chinese economy to recover in the short term. In the long term, a shrinking population leads to a reduction in the labor premium China has benefited from. However, China is investing in artificial intelligence, robotics, and other technologies to compensate for potential labor shortages. Overall, the short-term implications of a declining population are more severe, while the long-term effects require careful considerations regarding labor dynamics and economic evolution.
For years, people have been talking about the end of US dollar dominance or how some other currency could usurp its role around the world. But when it comes to global finance and trade, the dollar is as dominant as ever. Given the size of China's economy, the renminbi is considered one potential challenger. And in fact, China is making real moves on this front. On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of a recent article on China's de-dollarization efforts. As she sees it, the rise of a new energy and commodity system — one that is breaking away from oil — creates the opportunity for markets that are denominated in something other than dollars. Meanwhile, China, having seen Russia get cut off from the dollar system, has an increased incentive to protect itself from a similar fate. We discuss the prospects of a major change and how China could benefit, as well as the risks. We also discuss the current state of Chinese macro.