Historian Stephen Kotkin discusses Putin's resurgence in Russia, Biden administration's response to Ukraine, complexities of a potential armistice deal in 2022, navigating the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and speculating on Trump's return. The podcast explores Russia's future scenarios, geopolitical challenges, and the significance of managed competition in international relations.
Russia's strategy of being anti-Western hinders its international relations, highlighting the need for a more balanced approach.
Putin's regime relies on repressive power to suppress opposition, maintaining control and minimizing challenges to authority.
Deep dives
Russia's Grand Strategy and Anti-Western Stance
Russia's grand strategy involves being non-Western in a Western-dominated world. The mistake Russia often makes is being anti-Western rather than seeking a mutually beneficial relationship with the West. This approach of being anti-Western rather than neutral or aligned with the West poses challenges for Russia in navigating its international relations.
Putin's Regime and Suppression of Political Alternatives
Putin's regime in Russia is described as hollow yet strong, characterized by its repressive power and the absence of political alternatives. Putin focuses on suppressing political opposition to maintain power, leading to minimal challenges to the regime's authority and control.
Challenges in Predicting Russia's Objectives in Ukraine
Understanding Russia's objectives in Ukraine is complex, given the challenges in accessing accurate information about Putin's strategies. The war in Ukraine has transformed into a war of attrition based on the will to fight and capacity to fight, rather than immediate territorial gains.
US Policy Challenges and the Value of Cold War Strategy
US policy towards Russia faces complexities in finding effective strategies to influence Putin's actions while maintaining the possibility of positive relations with the Russian people. The idea of a Cold War strategy or managed competition is presented as a viable option to navigate the challenging dynamics in US-Russia relations.
When Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine and the West quickly came together in support of Kyiv, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power appeared shakier than ever. Last summer, an attempted coup even seemed to threaten his rule. But today, Putin looks confident. With battlefield progress in Ukraine and political turmoil ahead of the U.S. election in November, there’s reason to think things are turning in his favor.
The historian Stephen Kotkin joins us to discuss what this means for Russia’s future—and how the United States can be ready for whatever that future holds. Kotkin is the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is the author of the forthcoming book Stalin: Totalitarian Superpower, 1941–1990s, the last in his three-volume biography of the Soviet leader.