Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas 315 | Branden Fitelson on the Logic and Use of Probability
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May 19, 2025 
Branden Fitelson, a Distinguished Professor of Philosophy at Northeastern University, dives into the intricate world of probability and its significance in scientific inquiry. He discusses how understanding probability can help validate our scientific beliefs, distinguishing between inductive and deductive reasoning. Fitelson also explores the challenges of confirmation, including the Raven paradox and biases like the conjunction fallacy. He emphasizes the critical role of prior beliefs in shaping scientific evidence, especially in fields like particle physics.
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Probability Beyond Frequencies
- Probability is not simply the frequency of events but what a theory defines it to be.
- Frequencies help estimate probability but do not constitute probability itself.
Objective vs Epistemic Probability
- Objective probabilities exist within scientific theories like quantum mechanics and biology.
- Bayesian or epistemic probabilities are necessary to adjudicate between competing probabilistic theories fairly.
Induction Supports Theory Probabilities
- Science cannot guarantee conclusions as in deductive logic but can probabilistically favor one theory over another.
- Historical scientific progress evidences that evidence can increase the probability of correctness for better theories.