Odd Lots What 300 Years of Firewood Prices Say About the Economy
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Jul 25, 2025 
Nicholas Muller, a Carnegie Mellon economist and author of the paper on firewood in America's economy, joins to delve into the overlooked significance of firewood pricing. He discusses how firewood served as a dominant energy source from the 1700s until industrialization. The conversation reveals how 19th-century railroads boosted demand and how historical pricing trends relate to today’s economic indicators. Muller also highlights modern shifts back to wood as a renewable energy source, emphasizing its relevance in contemporary economic discussions.
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Importance of Firewood Price Data
- Firewood was the dominant energy source in early America but lacked comprehensive price data in official statistics.
- This data gap caused underestimations of economic size, growth, and agricultural productivity in historical analysis.
Using Probate Records for Prices
- Early firewood price data came from probate and estate records where firewood was valued as part of household assets.
- This approach allowed reconstruction of firewood price trends going back to the 1600s.
Real Firewood Price Rising Pre-Civil War
- From 1800 to the Civil War, real firewood prices rose about 0.5% to 1% per year, unlike the prior stable period.
- This price increase reflects growing demand and changing supply dynamics before the transition to coal.
