Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Scott DiMaggio (AllianceBernstein) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
Mar 20, 2024
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Scott DiMaggio and Leslie Falconio discuss shifts in market sentiment, economic outlook, and interest rate predictions. They explore navigating bond markets, concerns and risks in the fixed income market, and insights on global opportunities for investors.
In 2024, the economic outlook predicts inflation near 2.5% and slightly below trend growth, setting the stage for a soft landing scenario favoring fixed income investments.
Forecasts suggest the Federal Reserve will gradually lower rates with three reductions in 2024 and additional cuts in 2025, highlighting the importance of the rate trajectory for market dynamics.
Deep dives
Scott DiMaggio's Economic Outlook for 2024
Scott DiMaggio discusses the economic outlook for 2024, highlighting a year where both inflation and growth are moving towards Fed targets. He forecasts inflation to end around 2.5% and growth slightly below trend, indicating a soft landing scenario. This environment is seen as favorable for risk assets, particularly fixed income investments.
Federal Reserve Rate Path and Market Impact
Scott DiMaggio shares insights on the Federal Reserve's likely path over the next six to 12 months, emphasizing a gradual lowering of rates. He projects three rate reductions in 2024 and additional cuts in 2025, viewing the trajectory as more crucial than the exact timing. This lower rate path is seen as significant for influencing market dynamics.
Opportunities in Fixed Income Sectors
Scott DiMaggio identifies areas of value in fixed income markets, highlighting the attractiveness of up-in-quality trades like agency MBS and investment-grade corporates. He also mentions opportunities in high yield sectors and tips, citing potential performance amid changing market conditions. Overall, he emphasizes strategic entry points and allocation decisions in the current market environment.
Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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