EconTalk Ben Cohen on the Hot Hand
Aug 10, 2020
Journalist and author Ben Cohen, known for his book "The Hot Hand," delves into the fascinating psychology behind performance streaks in sports and life. He unpacks the illusion of the 'hot hand,' revealing how cognitive biases distort our perception of skill and randomness. The conversation spans from Shakespeare's tragic miscommunications to the biases faced by asylum judges, linking these themes to decision-making in sports. Cohen also discusses harnessing creativity through flow states, emphasizing resilience and the nuanced dance between chance and skill.
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Pattern-Seeking Animals
- Humans are storytelling, pattern-seeking animals, easily fooled by randomness.
- We see patterns where they don't exist, which fuels our belief in the hot hand.
Clumpiness vs. Randomness
- Our belief in the hot hand stems from our tendency to see patterns, even in random events.
- This was evolutionarily advantageous but can be misleading in modern, less "clumpy" environments.
Personal Hot Hand
- Ben Cohen recalls scoring many points in one high school basketball game, illustrating a personal hot hand experience.
- Such experiences fuel the belief in the hot hand and prompt questions about replicating peak performance.
