Top of the Morning: Nov Jobs Report, Dec Fed preview and the week ahead
Dec 8, 2023
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Senior Economist Americas, Brian Rose, discusses the November employment report and previews the upcoming Fed policy meeting. They analyze key findings, notable macro data releases, expectations for monetary policy in early 2024, and important economic indicators for investors.
The November Employment Report showed positive signs for the U.S. labor market, with payroll growth and improvements in average hourly earnings and average hours worked.
The focus shifts to the upcoming Fed meeting and expectations for monetary policy in early 2024, with investors advised to pay attention to economic indicators for insights into inflation and economic activity.
Deep dives
November Employment Report
The November Employment Report showed positive signs for the U.S. labor market. Payrolls increased by 199,000, primarily driven by growth in healthcare, government, and returning workers from strikes. Average hourly earnings and average hours worked also saw improvement, indicating positive implications for household income. Additionally, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.7%, with an increase in the labor force participation rate. This data suggests a strong labor market, as reflected in bond yields moving higher and stock market futures reacting in response.
Other Notable Data Releases and Expectations for Monetary Policy
Apart from the employment report, other macro data releases included the Jolt's job openings, which showed a decrease in openings, and the ISM services PMI, indicating moderate growth in the economy. Consumer credit data revealed a slower rate of increase in credit card balances. Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the Fed meeting and expectations for monetary policy in early 2024. While no changes are expected at the upcoming meeting, the revised economic projections, including the dot plot, may hint at some rate cuts. However, the market's aggressive pricing of rate cuts contrasts with the Fed's likely more cautious approach. Investors should also pay attention to upcoming economic indicators, such as the CPI for November, retail sales, and industrial production, which will provide insights into inflation and economic activity.
We close out a busy week by analyzing the November employment report and previewing next week’s Fed policy meeting. Brian provides his take on the health of the US labor market and what the course for monetary policy looks like as we head into 1Q24. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman
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