The Biden administration aims to screen outbound investments in semiconductors, microelectronics, AI, and quantum technology to protect US national security.
The new program for investment screening outlined in the executive order focuses on a narrow scope of investments in semiconductors, quantum technology, and specific AI applications, with provisions to address concerns about parent companies with subsidiaries in China.
Deep dives
The Administration's Executive Order on Outbound Investment Controls
The Biden administration has released an executive order asking the Treasury to address the perceived gap in trade and investment authority related to outbound investment controls. The order aims to screen outbound investments and capital in the fields of semiconductors, microelectronics, artificial intelligence, and quantum technology. This issue has been an ongoing discussion since 2017 and gained momentum after the Bureau of Industry and Security imposed export controls on advanced AI chips to China in October 2023. The executive order provides an opportunity for public comment and emphasizes the need to protect U.S. national security while avoiding extensive restrictions on allies.
The Politics and Dynamics of Outbound Investment Controls
The politics surrounding outbound investment controls have been complex. Initial proposals from Congress were broad and faced opposition from Republicans concerned about the potential expansion of government power. The Biden administration seeks to address these concerns while filling the perceived gap in statutory authority. The Treasury's new program for investment screening is designed to be narrower and more focused than the broad proposals that were initially presented. However, there are concerns about potential expansion and the extraterritorial reach of the program. The success of the program will depend on maintaining a balance between protecting national security and avoiding unintended consequences for U.S. firms and allies.
Understanding the Scope and Impact of the New Program
The new program outlined in the executive order has a narrow scope, primarily covering investments in semiconductors, quantum technology, and certain applications of artificial intelligence. The program presents two main avenues: prohibition and notification. Prohibition applies to investments in advanced chips, quantum technologies, and certain AI applications. Meanwhile, the notification regime covers a broader range of investments in the chip sector and specific AI applications. The program includes provisions to address concerns about parent companies with subsidiaries in China, allowing investments as long as the covered activities are less than 50% of the subsidiary's business. Careful consideration and public input will be essential to avoid unintended consequences and to ensure the program's effectiveness.
Navigating the Challenge of Technological Competition with China
As China's technological capabilities continue to grow, the challenge for the United States and its allies is determining the best approach in a multipolar world. Options include partnering with China to learn and upgrade technologies, creating stricter export controls, or exploring alternative policies to maintain a competitive edge without severing important economic and technological ties. The U.S. government faces a delicate balancing act to protect national security while avoiding unnecessary restrictions that may harm U.S. interests or alienate allies. The path forward will require ongoing collaboration, solid trade policies, and an affirmative agenda to promote U.S. interests and maintain a leading edge in critical technologies.
Emily Benson (CSIS) and Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) come on to discuss the new executive order and Treasury's ANRPM (advanced notice of proposed rulemaking) on novel outbound investment screening rules on AI, quantum and semis.