Exploring the historical shift in delegate selection process at Democratic conventions and the potential impact of a candidate's withdrawal. Diving into the possibilities of a new candidate selection through state conventions and grassroots efforts. Highlighting the chaos and frenzy of a contested convention with candidates lobbying for the nomination. Speculating on hypothetical scenarios like Joe Biden stepping aside and the dynamics of party conventions in past and present times.
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Quick takeaways
Selecting nominees involves two stages: primaries and choosing delegates, with a focus on majority delegate support.
Historical changes were prompted by the 1968 Democratic convention to ensure binding primaries and simultaneous caucuses.
Current primary system lacks peer review for candidate competence, allowing media-driven individuals to emerge without scrutiny.
Deep dives
Understanding the Two Stages of Selecting a President
The process of selecting a nominee consists of two stages: the primaries and choosing the delegates. Primaries allocate delegates, but the actual selection of delegates happens weeks or months after the primaries. The primaries are sequential, starting in January or February and lasting until early June. The primary in one state influences the next state. Ultimately, a candidate needs a majority of delegates, and if that doesn't happen, the convention becomes the ultimate authority.
The Shift to Sequential Primaries
The move to sequential primaries occurred due to the anti-war sentiment and protests of the 1968 Democratic convention. Before this, delegates were uncommitted going into the convention, and primaries were not binding. The 1968 Democratic convention brought changes to ensure primaries were binding and that caucus states held their caucuses simultaneously. These reforms were prompted by the desire to avoid a repeat of the chaotic 1968 convention.
The Importance of Peer Review and Competence
The current primary system lacks a form of peer review, where candidates' competence can come under scrutiny. The old convention system allowed party leaders and elected officials to assess a candidate's capacity to be the president. Peer review prevented the rise of candidates like Donald Trump, as experienced politicians could question their claims and proposals. The modern primary system lacks this kind of gatekeeping and can lead to the nomination of candidates primarily focused on media attention and book sales.
Potential Challenges and Divisions in a Brokored Convention
If a convention includes multiple strong candidates, divisions can arise, especially if there are sharp ideological or regional differences among the contenders. However, the current Democratic Party is relatively unified, making extreme divisions less likely. Nonetheless, the lack of experience in politicking among delegates and candidates could pose challenges, as they are not accustomed to the conventions' process. However, delegates are experienced in party politics and elected officials, which should help mitigate confusion and facilitate decision-making.
Impact on General Election Campaign and Fundraising
In the event of a convention late in the summer, the general election campaign might face time constraints. However, following the convention, the campaign becomes a collective effort of the party. Party strength and financial resources play crucial roles, as money can be allocated effectively, and party unity and fundraising efforts can help support the nominated candidate.
Last week on the show, I argued that the Democrats should pick their nominee at the Democratic National Convention in August.
It’s an idea that sounds novel but is really old-fashioned. This is how most presidential nominees have been picked in American history. All the machinery to do it is still there; we just stopped using it. But Democrats may need a Plan B this year. And the first step is recognizing they have one.
Elaine Kamarck literally wrote the book on how we choose presidential candidates. It’s called “Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know About How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates.” She’s a senior fellow in governance studies and the founding director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution. But her background here isn’t just theory. It’s practice. She has worked on four presidential campaigns and 10 nominating conventions for both Democrats and Republicans. She’s also on the convention’s rules committee and has been a superdelegate at five Democratic conventions.
It’s a fascinating conversation, even if you don’t think Democrats should attempt to select their nominee at the convention. The history here is rich, and it is, if nothing else, a reminder that the way we choose candidates now is not the way we have always done it and not the way we must always do it.
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Annie Galvin. Fact checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair and Kristin Lin. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Rollin Hu. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Sonia Herrero.
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