Regression Candidates, Exuberance-Pessimism, and Problematic Figures: RSP Film and Theory with Adam Harstad and Matt Waldman
Oct 10, 2024
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Adam Harstad, a celebrated Fantasy Football writer known for his sharp analysis, joins to discuss the psychology of fantasy managers' exuberance and pessimism. They dissect player regression, identifying those likely to lose their starter value versus those poised for a rebound. The conversation also delves into the complex legacies of controversial athletes like Brett Favre, confronting the ethical dilemmas surrounding their Hall of Fame status. Insights into managing conflicts among players enrich this thought-provoking dialogue on fantasy sports and NFL dynamics.
Fantasy managers often exhibit excessive optimism about their rosters, leading to potential misjudgments in player evaluations and draft strategies.
Recognizing the significance of perseverance, fantasy managers should avoid hasty rebuilding decisions despite early-season struggles and focus on continuous improvement.
The podcast discusses the complexities of player legacies, exploring how off-field actions influence societal perceptions, complicating the evaluation of player contributions.
Deep dives
Understanding Exuberance and Pessimism in Fantasy Sports
Fantasy managers tend to overestimate their teams' chances of winning, often leading to an inflated sense of optimism regarding their roster's performance. This phenomenon occurs because each manager typically believes that their players are better than perceived by others, resulting in collective projections that exceed 100%. This insight suggests that if everyone is overly optimistic, first-round future draft picks may be undervalued as people incorrectly assume their teams will perform better than they statistically will. Therefore, applying a measure of calculated pessimism could help managers better assess their teams and adjust their strategies accordingly.
The Risks of Over-Pessimism in Fantasy Management
While pessimism can help temper expectations, it can also lead to harmful decision-making when managers prematurely pivot to a rebuilding strategy due to a poor start. Historical examples illustrate that teams that struggled early in the season were still able to find success through perseverance and adjustments. Managers need to recognize their team's potential rather than surrendering to the circumstances that appear bleak. Remaining committed to the strategy of continuously improving the team rather than succumbing to negativity may allow for unexpected victories down the line.
The Randomness of Player Performance Metrics
Player statistics such as yards per carry can exhibit substantial variability, often influenced by random chance rather than skill alone. For instance, players like Gus Edwards have shown drastic drops in performance despite previous success, illustrating the unpredictability in metrics based on small sample sizes. Analysts often debate the correlation between these statistics and player talent, with some arguing that underlying skills are misrepresented during varied performance streaks. This randomness highlights the importance of recognizing player talent that may not align with temporary production dips.
Identifying Players Likely to Regress
Certain players are anticipated to regress positively or negatively based on their performance trends and situational factors. For example, Brees Hall and Saquon Barkley are seen as players who have the potential to rebound despite underwhelming averages early in the season. In contrast, players like Tank Bigsby may experience performance spikes but are less likely to sustain strong numbers once matchups against tougher defenses arise. Understanding these dynamics helps managers make informed decisions about player acquisitions and trades.
The Complexity of Legacy and Morality in Sports
The podcast delves into the multifaceted nature of player legacies, particularly highlighting figures like Brett Favre, whose on-field contributions are contrasted with controversial off-field actions. The discussion emphasizes how societal perceptions of morality and accountability influence how players are regarded, often leading to a dissonance between personal actions and professional acknowledgment. The notion of 'separating the art from the artist' is explored, emphasizing that fans and analysts must navigate their own moral compasses when evaluating such complexities. Ultimately, the conversation serves as a reflection on the larger societal implications of entertainment and morality.
Footballguys staff writer and FSWA Writer of the Year, Adam Harstad joins RSP Film and Theory as Matt Waldman’s cohost for the 2024 football season to discuss practices that will make you a better fantasy GM and NFL fan.
There are a lot of excellent writers and analysts in the fantasy industry. There are few that I hold in as high a regard as Adam (and not surprising he earned the FSWA’s Fantasy Writer of the Year). He’s a forthright human being with a tremendous intellect whose approach to analysis in this space differs from most.
He’s also an excellent fantasy GM in re-draft and dynasty formats. Adam spends a lot of time examining results and dealing with broad themes of decision-making that help us become better fantasy players and fantasy analysts.
https://youtu.be/2vT3XKaHfXI
Topics
The effects of fantasy manager exuberance and pessimism.
Players we expect to regress to the point of not having starter value.
Players you expect to have a positive regression and return to starter value.
Players you expect to regress but maintain starter value.
Brett Favre, Jim Tyrer, problematic players, and problematic institutions.
And of course, if you want to know about the rookies from this draft class, you will find the most in-depth analysis of offensive skill players available (QB, RB, WR, and TE), with the 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio for $21.95.
Matt’s new RSP Dynasty Rankings and Two-Year Projections Package is available for $24.95
If you’re a fantasy GM interested in purchasing past publications for $9.95 each, the 2012-2023 RSPs also have a Post-Draft Add-on that’s included at no additional charge.
Best yet, proceeds from sales are set aside for a year-end donation to Darkness to Light to combat the sexual abuse of children.
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