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Foreign Policy Live

What China’s Slowdown Means for the World

Oct 6, 2023
Lingling Wei, Adam Posen, and James Palmer discuss the potential impact of China's economic slowdown on the global economy, focusing on declining property sales, government intervention, and risks of public resentment. They also explore the challenges of high debt and limited spending options, as well as the effects of youth unemployment on public sentiment in China. The episode emphasizes the significance of mental health and introduces online therapy with BetterHelp.
47:07

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Quick takeaways

  • China's economic slowdown is the result of government interventionist policies and a lack of private sector confidence, with concerns about a protracted slowdown or a collapse in the financial and property sectors.
  • China's economic slowdown has significant implications for the global economy, including reduced demand for exports, declining foreign investment, potential disruptions to global supply chains, and dampened innovation and cultural exchange.

Deep dives

China's Economic Slowdown and Its Implications

China's economy is experiencing a significant slowdown, and this has far-reaching implications. The slowdown is the result of various factors, including government interventionist policies and a lack of confidence among the private sector. Ling Ling Wei, The Wall Street Journal's chief China correspondent, emphasizes that China is at a turning point in its economic development, with the debate centered around whether it will be a protracted slowdown or a more worrisome collapse due to risks in the financial and property sectors. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute, coined the term 'economic long COVID' to describe a persistent drag on consumer and small business behavior following the COVID-19 pandemic. Posen argues that China's economic slowdown is not just a result of ongoing growth challenges but also a consequence of intrusive government policies that have dampened private sector confidence. The lack of confidence and dwindling economic opportunities, particularly for the youth, are contributing to a downbeat mood across China. However, there are concerns as to whether President Xi Jinping is open to reversing course or considering alternative economic strategies. For now, the focus of China's economic policy remains on government intervention and promoting sectors deemed critical for its geopolitical resilience, rather than on supporting private businesses or stimulating consumer spending.

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