Lingling Wei, Adam Posen, and James Palmer discuss the potential impact of China's economic slowdown on the global economy, focusing on declining property sales, government intervention, and risks of public resentment. They also explore the challenges of high debt and limited spending options, as well as the effects of youth unemployment on public sentiment in China. The episode emphasizes the significance of mental health and introduces online therapy with BetterHelp.
China's economic slowdown is the result of government interventionist policies and a lack of private sector confidence, with concerns about a protracted slowdown or a collapse in the financial and property sectors.
China's economic slowdown has significant implications for the global economy, including reduced demand for exports, declining foreign investment, potential disruptions to global supply chains, and dampened innovation and cultural exchange.
Deep dives
China's Economic Slowdown and Its Implications
China's economy is experiencing a significant slowdown, and this has far-reaching implications. The slowdown is the result of various factors, including government interventionist policies and a lack of confidence among the private sector. Ling Ling Wei, The Wall Street Journal's chief China correspondent, emphasizes that China is at a turning point in its economic development, with the debate centered around whether it will be a protracted slowdown or a more worrisome collapse due to risks in the financial and property sectors. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute, coined the term 'economic long COVID' to describe a persistent drag on consumer and small business behavior following the COVID-19 pandemic. Posen argues that China's economic slowdown is not just a result of ongoing growth challenges but also a consequence of intrusive government policies that have dampened private sector confidence. The lack of confidence and dwindling economic opportunities, particularly for the youth, are contributing to a downbeat mood across China. However, there are concerns as to whether President Xi Jinping is open to reversing course or considering alternative economic strategies. For now, the focus of China's economic policy remains on government intervention and promoting sectors deemed critical for its geopolitical resilience, rather than on supporting private businesses or stimulating consumer spending.
The Potential Impact on Global Economy and Geopolitics
China's economic slowdown has significant implications for the global economy and geopolitical dynamics. China has been a major driver of global growth and a vital market for many countries. As its economy slows, there are concerns about reduced demand for exports, declining foreign investment, and potential disruptions to global supply chains. Ling Ling Wei notes that China's lack of confidence and economic stagnation could have broader repercussions, dampening innovation, limiting cultural exchange, and impeding positive interactions with the rest of the world. Adam Posen highlights the potential for capital outflows, business diversification, and intellectual property shifts away from China. While there may be jubilation among some US hawks, Posen argues that the US can take a different approach, utilizing suctions rather than sanctions to induce adjustments within the Chinese economic system. Such an approach could encourage Chinese private sector adaptation and minimize negative impacts on the global economy. It is important to emphasize that the challenge lies with the Chinese Communist Party and its policies, rather than with the Chinese people or private commerce.
The Political Complexities and Uncertainties
Navigating China's economic slowdown is complicated by various political complexities and uncertainties. President Xi Jinping's focus on great power competition and security priorities has shifted the government's agenda away from economic development and reforms. Ling Ling Wei emphasizes that meaningful course corrections would require a change in political focus at the highest level, along with concrete measures to support the private sector and address long-term structural problems. However, current indications suggest that Xi remains determined to pursue his geopolitical objectives, leaving limited fiscal space for stimulating the economy and little room for reversing interventionist policies. The lack of confidence among the Chinese people and private businesses, combined with political control and limited economic transparency, raises concerns about the government's ability to effectively address the economic challenges. Uncertainties about accurate economic data further complicate the understanding of China's economic situation and potential paths forward.
Implications for US-China Relations and Policy Options
China's economic slowdown also has implications for US-China relations and offers both challenges and opportunities. Ling Ling Wei highlights how Chinese geopolitical priorities, along with concerns related to security and national resilience, have contributed to increasingly restricted market access and foreign investment. Adam Posen argues that reorienting US policies toward suctions rather than sanctions could potentially induce adjustments within China, with a focus on supporting private businesses and promoting economic openness. Such an approach would target the Chinese Communist Party rather than the Chinese people or private commerce, and it could also align more effectively with US allies. Nonetheless, the complexity of China's economic slowdown and the uncertainties surrounding political dynamics require caution and ongoing analysis to effectively manage US-China relations and navigate any potential geopolitical shifts.
The world’s second-largest economy is slowing down. But are concerns overblown? What’s at risk for the global economy? How should policymakers react?
The Wall Street Journal’s chief China correspondent, Lingling Wei; economist Adam Posen; and FP’s James Palmer join Ravi Agrawal to decipher the economic data and news from China.