In this discussion, Charles Lister, a senior fellow and expert on Syria at the Middle East Institute, delves into the renewed intensity of the Syrian Civil War. He highlights the ongoing military offensives driven by opposition forces and the complex realities of the Assad regime's capabilities. Lister also examines the role of key players like Russia and Iran, the evolution of rebel group HTS, and the ethical dilemmas faced by the international community regarding intervention. The conversation emphasizes the urgent need for a united global response to the crisis.
The recent territorial gains by opposition forces in Syria highlight a shifting momentum in the civil war, raising concerns about prolonged conflict.
The humanitarian crisis in Syria has worsened, with critical funding shortfalls impeding effective international response to the dire needs of millions.
Deep dives
Escalation of the Syrian Conflict
The Syrian civil war has recently intensified, marked by significant territorial gains for opposition forces, particularly in Idlib and Aleppo provinces. A coalition of armed opposition groups launched an offensive named 'Operation Deter Aggression', initially aimed at securing strategic areas to counter regime artillery. Within days, opposition forces managed to gain control of Aleppo city and almost all of Idlib province, akin to the situation in 2017. These rapid advancements indicate a shift in momentum, raising concerns about the potential for prolonged conflict as the regime attempts to reclaim lost territory.
Humanitarian Crisis and International Response
The humanitarian crisis in Syria has reached unprecedented levels, with needs reportedly doubling since the height of conflict in 2014-2015. The United Nations faces critical funding shortfalls, having secured only 27% of required aid for the upcoming year, which exacerbates the plight of millions in dire need. The Syrian regime's activities have transformed it into a major narco-state, further complicating the situation as the refugee crisis deepens with minimal prospects for return. The international community’s attention has been diverted to other conflicts, significantly impairing its ability to respond effectively to the ongoing humanitarian needs in Syria.
Opposition Strength and Regime Vulnerability
The opposition forces, particularly Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have significantly enhanced their military capabilities over the past few years through self-training and innovation in weaponry. HTS has developed specialized units, including night operations and suicide drone units, which have proven effective against the regime’s forces. In contrast, the Syrian regime's military has stagnated, suffering from corruption and disorganization, leading to chaotic responses on the battlefield. This disparity illustrates the opposition's newfound effectiveness and the regime's vulnerabilities, suggesting that the conflict might escalate further as the opposition pushes their advantage.
Future Implications and International Involvement
The current dynamics indicate that while the opposition has gained ground, sustaining and expanding this control may prove challenging due to limited personnel and resources. The regime retains capable military units that could stabilize certain front lines, but its overall coherence has been tested. The role of Turkey and the potential for negotiations may influence the trajectory of the conflict, as international engagement has waned in recent years. A renewed dialogue among international powers regarding Syria might be necessary to avoid a protracted and devastating military campaign, underscoring the need for a cohesive and strategic response from the global community.
Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor and Georgetown professor Daniel Byman sits down with Charles Lister, Director of Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism Programs at the Middle East Institute for an update on the Syrian opposition taking Aleppo and the prospects for the civil war going forward. They discuss the status of the Syrian conflict; the nature of the key group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham; why conflict happened now; and what might happen going forward.
You can watch a video version of their conversation here.